This is an important thread, but from the perspective of someone further up the supply chain - even if tariffs get sorted by June 1st, we’re still going to see another huge dip right when Christmas merch is due to arrive in the country. It’s not just shipments being held, but new factory orders too - ThreadSky

adriancantrell.bsky.social • 18 hours ago

This is an important thread, but from the perspective of someone further up the supply chain - even if tariffs get sorted by June 1st, we’re still going to see another huge dip right when Christmas merch is due to arrive in the country. It’s not just shipments being held, but new factory orders too

Reposted from Nome

It will take 1-2 months, after that, for trade to go back to normal, for volumes of freight to return to their old levels.

That's August 1st. Three months and change away.

Truckers are, right now, scrambling. How many do you think have three months of savings to live off of, with no work?

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adriancantrell.bsky.social•18 hours ago

It takes 60-90 days (depending on order size, complexity, etc) from when you place a factory PO to when it gets on a boat. My job works a little in advance of the normal retail schedule because we do a substantial amount of manufacturing in the US, using semi-finished goods primarily from China

adriancantrell.bsky.social•18 hours ago

We placed SOME of our Christmas orders right before the tariff bullshit started, and have placed barely any new orders since, and those mostly going to other countries. There will be weeks in July/August where we will have nothing leaving China. And that will be true regardless of what happens with

adriancantrell.bsky.social•18 hours ago

these tariffs in the next few weeks. We’re still better off than a lot of people, because of our US manufacturing and ability to store goods domestically. Most companies are holding orders, but those orders are big holiday orders, which will make up a big chunk of expected revenue for the year

adriancantrell.bsky.social•18 hours ago

Like truckers, there will also be a shortage of skilled labor at the factory level, as workers get let go during this limbo time. Deliveries WILL be unstable for months even when new orders come through. Even during Chinese New Year, which is a 10000% known disruption,

adriancantrell.bsky.social•18 hours ago

you still only get maybe 30% of the workers back. Honestly even if the tariffs get reversed next month, I don’t think things will truly stabilize until after next Chinese New Year, which means April next year.

adriancantrell.bsky.social•16 hours ago

I should maybe add that I don’t expect the tariffs to be reversed next month. I think things will keep escalating pointlessly and the cascading problems will be worse for the US economy than COVID. I’ll be very happy to be wrong but 🤷‍♀️

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