Using Copernicus data from Jan. 1, 1980 through Nov. 30, 2024, here is an updated forecast graph for the global surface temperature anomaly, assuming accelerating warming.
This forecast shows us currently at 1.46°C, breaking 1.5°C in late 2025, breaking 2.0°C in 2036 and reaching 2.2°C by 2040.
This forecast shows us currently at 1.46°C, breaking 1.5°C in late 2025, breaking 2.0°C in 2036 and reaching 2.2°C by 2040.
Comments
Things are dire obviously but no need to inflate the problem IMO
This projection looks absurd, from years ago. But not quite so silly these days, with temps really starting to take flight. Plural standard deviations away from 20th century averages.
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3ldeau6qc222t
It's definitely in the cards:
https://www.unep.org/topics/ocean-seas-and-coasts/blue-ecosystems/coral-reefs
Of note is the significantly lower value of R² from the accelerating version.
1.5°C in mean global surface warming=HOTTER
LOCALLY, 1.5°C can produce 8-10+°F of surface heating, amplifying hurricanes/tornados/drought, deaths, farming failure.
2°C =3.6°F : giant temp swings
"Nothing about this is opinion"
We need rapid, clear, kindergarten level communications written by PR people who get the message themselves.
People truly do not understand.
Literally, they don't get how DIRE this is.
But realistically speaking, we're there already, past predictions, and just quibbling about numbers now.
And yet NOTHING really, from the press. They dismissed it from their minds, and gave COP etc to he oil barons, so it must all be fine now?
& yes: Same gadfly i was on X
I was in the field of nonlinear dynamics enough to know that scientists prefer linearity, and turn from complexity - but this is getting ridiculous.
I've got a lot of shit over the years for using non-linear tend lines.
They never have a credible response to the question of why they think linear is more suitable.
Some mumble about the null hypothesis
All the chaos theory/NLD people vanished into Big Finance, and I see physicists don't even know enough to characterise attractors in their parameter domains...
All due to a real resistance to nonlinearity and complexity.
But real systems ARE those things.
Nonlinear systems/functions can be predictable; this is the case for an "attractor", where a nonlinear group of factors/parameters interact to produce predictable behaviors like climate,weather, behavior of organisms, flocks, societies.
Behavioral nonlinear regimes can be simple ->unpredictable
https://news.mit.edu/2010/explained-linear-0226
It doesn't mean inherently unpredictable -but it is not simplistic/predictable as a line is, has more complexity
1/2
Simply their ongoing efforts to "burn all the trees, saving us from fire" will overheat especially the high montane spaces.
Mountains - and US national forests - are only protected from runaway overheating and induction of fires
BY the forests.
(That's when picked up a book and wanted to get to the bottom of climate data)