I just realized I have a small error in the previous chart -- the value of R² was a leftover from a previous graphic. Quadratic is actually even a better fit, if you can believe it! Here is the corrected graphic. - ThreadSky

climatecasino.net • 10 days ago

I just realized I have a small error in the previous chart -- the value of R² was a leftover from a previous graphic. Quadratic is actually even a better fit, if you can believe it!

Here is the corrected graphic.

Comments

nguyenivy.bsky.social•7 days ago

Does the R have the same rules as for linear regression (1 = perfect positive correlation)?

ningelschuh.bsky.social•10 days ago

Of course its not exponential... Is that even real question?

Quadratic or kubic growth is worse enough.

climatecasino.net•10 days ago

It shouldn't be a real question, but many non-scientists use the word 'exponential' for any graph that's 'curved up' and have no idea how wrong they are.

This incorrect interpretation is used by some on social media who peddle NTHE disinformation.

We are f&%ked, but not exponentially f&%ked.

gjcats.bsky.social•10 days ago

I am pretty sure an exponential will fit better than a quadratic if you extend your graph to the start of the industrial era - and fitting the increase wrt pre-industrial temperature.

gjcats.bsky.social•10 days ago

But lacking any physical reason for exponential or quadratic, I am even more sure it is neither. Both are convenient ways to express acceleration, nothing more than that.

climatecasino.net•10 days ago

No, it does not. Exponential does not fit at all.

ningelschuh.bsky.social•10 days ago

Thx. Maybe Covid19 screwed the whole a bit up. Bartlett paradox time, ppl see now water lilies everywhere. 🙄

paranoidandroid42.bsky.social•10 days ago

Being squared f&%ked is bad enough.

ipaulypaul.bsky.social•10 days ago

Collapse on autopilot

fillthespace.bsky.social•10 days ago

The graph demonstrates that warming of the last two years should not be surprising as it is in line with decades of data. And, without dramatic change, the next decade will be dramatically warmer.

climatenews.bsky.social•9 days ago

It is interesting to see the mini “error waves” where the observed data deviates from the quadratic curve have almost completely disappeared in the last 10 years as the gradient has increased.

It’s as if our climate is picking up speed and now on a steady accelerating rail (towards a cliff)…

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