It appears as if the authors put in 10 times as much freshwater (0.4 Sv) as observed for the freshwaterflux from Greenland (0.04 Sv) (see below). If 10 times more freshwater is needed to bring the model in agreement with the observation-based AMOC slowdown estimate, maybe this estimate is wrong? - ThreadSky

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polarocean.bsky.social • 102 days ago

It appears as if the authors put in 10 times as much freshwater (0.4 Sv) as observed for the freshwaterflux from Greenland (0.04 Sv) (see below). If 10 times more freshwater is needed to bring the model in agreement with the observation-based AMOC slowdown estimate, maybe this estimate is wrong?

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polarocean.bsky.social•102 days ago

I would be more worried about projected AMOC declines if the historical freshwater had such an influence on the simulated AMOC. If 10 times the historic freshwater has that impact, I am rather relieved. If an extreme freshwater flux only does 0.4 Sv per decade, the AMOC appears to be quite stable.

polarocean.bsky.social•102 days ago

Of course, the AMOC will eventually decline and consequences will be bad, but we, as the scientific community, have to be careful to not loudly proclaim soon doomsday scenarios if we are not 100% sure.

polarocean.bsky.social•102 days ago

The future will be very(!) bad if we do not do anything now. But if we exaggerate, it is hard to convince the public to act.

deepest-sleeper.bsky.social•101 days ago

I have been eagerly following the AMOC literature for years and pull myself into a bit of spiral whenever a study like this comes out 😂. I've gotten good at being skeptical. Is there someone you recommend following who has a level-headed take on this? Should I just wait for the next IPCC report?

deepest-sleeper.bsky.social•101 days ago

they do address the melt rate in their piece in The Conversation: https://theconversation.com/meltwater-from-greenland-and-the-arctic-is-weakening-ocean-circulation-speeding-up-warming-down-south-238302

"Since 2002, Greenland lost 5,900 billion tonnes (gigatonnes) of ice. To put that into perspective, imagine if the whole state of New South Wales was covered in ice 8 metres thick."

deepest-sleeper.bsky.social•101 days ago

not sure what to make of this. I follow the press releases but I'm a complete novice. Thanks!

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