From Obama to Trump II this is the geopolitical dilemma for the US & NATO. The US needs to Deter China Rebuild the Navy & defense industry Provide NATO security Aid Ukraine Provide stability in ME The U.S. cannot afford all of this at once & the first two matter most to US national security 1/ - ThreadSky

zenpundit.bsky.social • 21 days ago

From Obama to Trump II this is the geopolitical dilemma for the US & NATO. The US needs to

Deter China
Rebuild the Navy & defense industry
Provide NATO security
Aid Ukraine
Provide stability in ME

The U.S. cannot afford all of this at once & the first two matter most to US national security 1/

Comments

zenpundit.bsky.social•21 days ago

The easiest solution is that Europe provides more of the collective security than in the past which they can easily afford to do so the US. can shift some resources to the Pacific threat

Which Europe adamantly refuses to do

Obama/Biden knew we had to change but only tinkered at the margins here

zenpundit.bsky.social•21 days ago

Regardless of who the next POTUS is after Trump the geopolitical dilemma remains the same and Europe expecting America to neglect its biggest threats in order to let them spend 1% on defense won’t happen even if the next POTUS is blue

Why are Euros so stubborn ? Well…

zenpundit.bsky.social•21 days ago

We are requiring them to change a political economy model that is the power base for their established political parties since 1992. Butter not guns

Realistic defense means less welfare state or dystopian net zero fantasies of the green parties which disrupts their internal political arrangements

zenpundit.bsky.social•21 days ago

It can’t be helped and it doesn’t matter if the next US president is a Democrat or not

If NATO is to continue with US as a guarantor then Europe needs to move to create a viable and realistic conventional deterrence

Games like this are non-starters
Norway needs the US Navy we don’t need Norway

loadsabot.bsky.social•21 days ago

The problem is your list is US priorities. Norway doesn't need to care much about the Mideast or China. It looks like the US is set on a path that will benefit Russia, Norway (and the EU)'s most acute threat. So Norwegians now feel pressure to realign their security to not depend on the US.

loadsabot.bsky.social•21 days ago

NATO has made both sides of the Atlantic safer and richer, but we seem intent on testing its limits. NATO gave the US a way to mitigate risk of Europe fighting itself for a third time. After giving up our seat at the table, we may see a rearmed Europe led by parties like AfD and National Rally.

zenpundit.bsky.social•21 days ago

Not sure how making it harder for the US Navy to protect the northern NATO sea flank would help improve Norwegian security but sure, give it a go. See how that works out

Maybe consult the neighbors first though

Comments

Posting Rules

Reply