In the past, the world had not seen musk for the drug-addled tyrant that he is. Today's market activity reflects a reaction to people's fear of him as much as lack of faith in tesla's products
If I had to model Tesla stochastically, I’d defease the Musk Ikarus probability and multiply 1-cumulative Ikarus prob. by 6% of US GDP, a ‘fair’ rent. As a middling car company without much scale, Tesla alone would not be worth more than 30$ per share.
I calculated 6% of GDP @Y4 assuming cont. comp. annual transition prob. of 20%. As Tesla is not dropping a dividend owners are exposed to him continuously catching chainsaws. Ownership is immoral, Nazi salute & expectation of undue rent, and legally risky, corruption legislation & fiduciary duty.
Tesla is a meme stock, and those holding it have a vested interest in the price staying high. Plus Musk keeps promising new vapourware products like the taxi and the robot that theoretically could pay off big if they work (they won't work, but we are 10+ years from proving that).
EV sales are up in Europe but Tesla in recent weeks went down by dozens of percentage points across European countries. They’ll probably keep some taxi fleet owners but apparently Hertz is selling its Tesla stock. Car dealers are polls too in this case.
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