The new Bundestag: - CDU/SPD "grand coalition" viable - but not very "grand" on just 52% of seats (Merkel's Grokos had 73%, 80%, 56%) - AfD and Left together have more than the 1/3 needed to block constitutional change (inc debt-brake reform or new "special fund" for defence) - ThreadSky

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jeremycliffe.bsky.social • 3 days ago

The new Bundestag:
- CDU/SPD "grand coalition" viable
- but not very "grand" on just 52% of seats (Merkel's Grokos had 73%, 80%, 56%)
- AfD and Left together have more than the 1/3 needed to block constitutional change (inc debt-brake reform or new "special fund" for defence)

Comments

ido.bsky.social•3 days ago

Is it even a grand coalition if it isn’t between the two biggest parties?

jeremycliffe.bsky.social•3 days ago

Expect to hear much more about that blocking minority in coming weeks. Will be major headache for Merz, but arguably he has himself to blame:

- Didn't pass debt brake reform in outgoing parliament where 2/3 possible
- His migration stunt was probably responsible for Left revival

jeremycliffe.bsky.social•3 days ago

Great @ecfr.eu webinar discussion w/ @jpuglierin.bsky.social, @jankaoertel.bsky.social & Timo Lochocki on all this just now, covering: results, prospects & dynamics of new GroKo, Merz's likely direction on EU, US and China, AfD-Left blocking minority and more.

Will share recording here shortly.

jeremycliffe.bsky.social•3 days ago

And here it is: our discussion on the German election results from this morning’s webinar ⬇️

https://ecfr.eu/podcasts/episode/germanys-election-results-continuity-or-turning-point/

leftoutside.bsky.social•3 days ago

Tbh Merkel's GroKos were disasters

thecursingpoet.bsky.social•3 days ago

It's going to be more paralysis. This goes to Merkel's 15 yrs of status quo "minus," reducing investment in infrastructure , German railroad saw cuts, etc, and the ridiculous debt brake legislation tying the gov's hands in times of emergency passed under her. Tactically clever, no vision.

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