A central thesis is that the probabilistic nature of selection is rooted in "population-environment systems": a population in its environment, understood as a trial of a "chance setup", a complex analog of tossing a pair of dice. I argue that the way empirical research is done supports this idea.3/9 - ThreadSky

marshall0i.bsky.social • 16 days ago

A central thesis is that the probabilistic nature of selection is rooted in "population-environment systems": a population in its environment, understood as a trial of a "chance setup", a complex analog of tossing a pair of dice. I argue that the way empirical research is done supports this idea.3/9

Comments

marshall0i.bsky.social•16 days ago

If natural selection is survival of the fittest, what is it to be fitter? Not actually having more offspring; that's survival of what survives. Stearns said fitness is "something everyone understands but no one can define precisely". I clarify different roles that useful fitness concepts play. 4/9

marshall0i.bsky.social•16 days ago

Philosophers of biology focused on fitness difference as cause of evolution. A common philosophical view treats fitness as probabilistic property of each particular, actual individual organism in its environmental circumstances, with trait fitness as e.g. mean fitness of organisms with a trait. 5/9

marshall0i.bsky.social•16 days ago

The probabilities are objective, not Bayesian, but not mere frequencies. Some say "propensities": dispositions like fragility but indeterministic. This view implies clones can have different fitnesses (not= offspring), even in the same environment, due to different environmental circumstances, 6/9

marshall0i.bsky.social•16 days ago

e.g. seeds with soil microvariation. This view treats an individual in its microenvironmental as a trial of a chance setup, but leaves out too much about natural selection. Population-environment systems add what's missing. Distinguishing roles for fitness concepts helps in justifying the idea. 7/9

marshall0i.bsky.social•16 days ago

Some fitnesses can be measured on individuals and used to infer trait fitnesses. The latter reflect actual/possible future organisms, other elements in population-environment systems. I argue that researcher interests specify what count as real population-environment systems and thus selection. 8/9

marshall0i.bsky.social•16 days ago

And I argue for a conception of the nature of #probability in population-environment systems that doesn't depend on indeterminism.

[I hope this very brief sketch is at least intriguing. Happy to answer questions, discuss further.] 9/9

Comments

Posting Rules

Reply