We should have no illusions: Just as it is now doing with Ukraine, the Trump administration will try to force the Europeans into line if they resist a deal on American (or rather Russian?) terms.
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Should Europe get ready for US sanctions? I remember ECFR had published an interesting study back in 2020 on how the EU could deal with economic coercion
The EU can retaliate on tariffs and other economic coercion. My fear is that the only leverage the US really has on Europe at this level is its participation in NATO.
Withdrawal of which would, of course, also be a massive Russian strategic win.
It would not just be a matter of withdrawal. Rather, it would go hand in hand with an intensified economic war against Europe. But also: The plutocrats will not get away with everything.
Perhaps I should have been clearer - I'm not talking about formal withdrawal *from* NATO (yet), but selective withdrawal of security cooperation as you mention. The substantial majority of that is under NATO auspices, am I right?
Point is that security in general is the only substantial leverage.
All evidence points to US - *this* US - no longer intending to use any of its NATO contribution to defend NATO against Russia; *certainly* not nukes. The only thing they now do provide seems to be insecurity. We have to look for ways to actively hurt Trump’s agenda, leverage we can use just in case.
Let them try, together with Ukraine we Europeans (plus Canada and Australia) will be able to repell Russia, despite all effort, Trump and Vance are putting in to please Putin! I have the ‚educated guess‘ that Putin and Trump want to use EU troops on Ukrainian soil as bargaining chip for territory!
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https://bsky.app/profile/thomasdudek.bsky.social/post/3ljnit3nuis2a
And Ukraine is just the start.
Withdrawal of which would, of course, also be a massive Russian strategic win.
Point is that security in general is the only substantial leverage.