This was literally me asking to disaggregate the mottes and baileys here, separating relatively short-ranged, theater-level and ICBM threats and then splitting ICBM threats NMD might meet from smaller actors with very limited platforms (doable) vs. NMD vs. peer opponents (not doable). - ThreadSky

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bretdevereaux.bsky.social • 25 days ago

This was literally me asking to disaggregate the mottes and baileys here, separating relatively short-ranged, theater-level and ICBM threats and then splitting ICBM threats NMD might meet from smaller actors with very limited platforms (doable) vs. NMD vs. peer opponents (not doable).

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xkeyscore.bsky.social•25 days ago

“given that missile interception has become a pretty regular wartime occurrence and my understanding was that anti-ICBM capability has been demonstrated as well in tests”

this is a textbook motte-and-bailey. mayb you didn’t mean it that way, fair enough, but better phrasing could have been employed

bretdevereaux.bsky.social•25 days ago

I'm struggling to follow how a question in which I explicitly separate the two things (one proved in combat, the other merely demonstrated in tests) is a motte and bailey.

I am granting a priori that these two things are unlike in key respects.

xkeyscore.bsky.social•25 days ago

there are many things you struggle with and none of the journos you’re asking actually understand the field in any depth. eg, countermeasures are just one of the issues. a more salient issue is that it’s so easy to blind systems on the ground, plus space-based sensors. 1/2

xkeyscore.bsky.social•25 days ago

the tests indicate that GMD (or SM3 Block IIA but that’s a separate discussion) could reliably intercept an unsophisticated North Korean or Iranian ICBM, however, GMD absolutely cannot reliably intercept (or defeat(lol)) a Russian or Chinese second strike let alone a first. 2/2

bretdevereaux.bsky.social•25 days ago

Believe it or not, people sometimes ask questions in good faith. I very literally wanted the statement 'unpacked' - explained for each case.

xkeyscore.bsky.social•25 days ago

okay fair enough, perhaps i’m too cynical because this is the exact thing that dishonest defense twitter users say, and it’s a motte-and-bailey every time

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