This week, China conducted Exercise Strait Thunder 2025A. I have just published a special assessment of this lightning military activity, what the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) sought to achieve and what we might learn from it. 1/4
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what we learning is Chump creates all this choas at home then starts WWIII and anyone that would have resisted him gets nuked cuz some of us been around for a min and know an attack on Taiwan is precursor to WWIII starting!
RAND did a study decades ago, since validated by observation of real conflicts, that showed 1 trigger-puller is required for every 50 people to hold even lightly-contested territory. Trigger -pullers are about 15% of any modern army.
2/ These activities have a range of objectives from a Chinese perspective. They test joint headquarters planning, the integration of different domain capabilities, normalise large-scale activity around Taiwan, test new weapons and form part of China's decepation about its intentions.
3/ Activities like these also provide insights for Taiwan, the US & other militaries. This include the level joint competency of the PLA, the capacity & integration of enablers like the PLA rocket force, information, space and logistics, orgs, and how good the PLA is at learning & adaptation.
4/ The PLA is gaining in its competency in joint operations. The big question is when the Chinese might decide that the conditions are right for them to turn one of these exercises around Taiwan into the real thing. Read my assessment here: https://mickryan.substack.com/p/chinas-lighting-operation-around
I’d say sooner than later, now that the US isn’t really an impediment, and the global economic crash will severely reduce Taiwanms ability to get help.
They’ll probably cut all the undersea cables first, block external communications, then it may be hours before anyone knows whats happening.
There should have been An American Armada "watching ". Along with S. KOREAN, PHILLIPINO, AND Japanese right there. No country will come to our side after April 2nd
It's a long trip under very heavy drone, missile, and artillery fire. Amphibious landings in the face of determined resistance are the most difficult maneuvers in warfare. China has no real-world experience at it. So the price of even success is very high. Not a light decision for them.
Is this assuming that American troops would be ordered to fight them off though? Or is this solely the Taiwan troops that would be able to defend themselves? I honestly am not informed on this, I just think if an overwhelming Chinese force showed up on Taiwan's doorstep, the US would do nothing.
Oh, we probably wouldn't, but Taiwan has been preparing for this for 70 years. The island is riddled with bunkers, hideaways, tunnels, etc. They have conscription and can call up 1.6 million trained reservists. With an active duty of around 160k. It would make Ukraine look like heaven.
Why bother, they already have Putin by the balls. No, thanks to Trump they will expand the BRIC alliance and likely try to replace the dollar as the world reserve currency. Crushing the USA is their objective. China will lead the new order.
To correct the ‘Century of Humiliation.’ It’s one of the remaining unequal treaties China was forced into. Taiwan doesn’t really form part of that; it was Chang Kai-shek who first coined the phrase Century of Humiliation. China is now in the Century of Rebirth; and it’s a box that needs ticking.
The US military is now being run by novices, yes men and incompetent fools.
So the ability of the US to counter a Chinese invasion is now diminished.
This makes it much more likely the Chinese regime will make its move on Taiwan sometime during the next four years.
Even purely selfishly we're pretty fucked, including in defense, without Taiwan's chip manufacturing, since Trump killed Biden's program for domestic chip producction.
Agreed. And Trump's tariff war decreases the economic disincentives for them to act. When the Chinese economy slows down Xi will need a distraction. I would think they would act sooner rather than later given the rampart incompetence in Washington.
MAGA is there to stay. Either Trump will stay longer than 2029, or he will appoint one of his clan members to succeed. Most sane US voters are disillusioned, abstain from voting & thereby allow MAGA to win. In short: Xi has no time pressure.
Pretty sure China will pay a personal bribe to Trump to have the US military stand down. We will see Trump start extorting Taiwan for “protection” and withdraw because they didn’t pay enough. We’ve already walked away from closer allies.
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They’ll probably cut all the undersea cables first, block external communications, then it may be hours before anyone knows whats happening.
They know the Trump administration won't lift a finger. And the finger is attached to the hand of a moron who would have no fucking clue what to do.
Actual people living in Taiwan are like: we have WHAT now?
So the ability of the US to counter a Chinese invasion is now diminished.
This makes it much more likely the Chinese regime will make its move on Taiwan sometime during the next four years.
His rhetoric reflects expansionism is manifest destiny