good reasoning all the way... with just one more thing i only realized in retrospect: because it's south 3, the riichi player gets all last deal, and looking at the scores, i think you actually want to deal into north's tanyao rather than let south win this hand and catch up
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This late in the round the odds of them winning the hand are pretty slim. A riichi with only a couple of draws left always feels like I'm just throwing away points lol