Approximately 12 months ago, 🇷🇺 initiated a large-scale long-range strike campaign against Ukraine. I have gathered data on the long-range strike (LRS) weapons employed by Russia and Ukraine's success in intercepting them. This thread provides a summary of the findings. 👇🧵 1/14 - ThreadSky

frhoffmann.bsky.social • 517 days ago

Approximately 12 months ago, 🇷🇺 initiated a large-scale long-range strike campaign against Ukraine. I have gathered data on the long-range strike (LRS) weapons employed by Russia and Ukraine's success in intercepting them. This thread provides a summary of the findings. 👇🧵 1/14

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scht0nk0.bsky.social•517 days ago

Nice writeup 👍

textforlunch.bsky.social•517 days ago

shouldn't such analysis be of limited availability for concerned party only?

frhoffmann.bsky.social•517 days ago

According to official information provided by the Ukrainian Air Force, Russia has launched a minimum of 3,967 long-range strike weapons against Ukraine in the past 12 months. Out of these, 3,249 were successfully intercepted. 2/14

frhoffmann.bsky.social•517 days ago

Please note that this estimate may underestimate the total number of long-range strike weapons launched, while it may potentially overestimate the number of intercepted long-range strike weapons (e.g., the AFU potraying failed launches as successful intercepts). 3/14

frhoffmann.bsky.social•517 days ago

In any case, these numbers indicate the staggering amount of ammunition consumed in modern warfare. Contemporary wars are missile wars. States must adapt and prepare accordingly, investing in both their own offensive strike capabilities and defensive countermeasures. 4/14

frhoffmann.bsky.social•517 days ago

The first intense period occurred during Winter 22/23 when 🇷🇺 targeted Ukraine's electrical infrastructure, predominently using cruise missiles. The highest number of LRS launched in a single day also occured during this period, with Russia launching 131 LRS on 17 Nov 22. 5/14

frhoffmann.bsky.social•517 days ago

The intensity of long-range strikes decreased from Jan-Apr 23, but picked up again in May. Sep 23 was the highest month in terms of LRS launched. However, it is evident that the use of cruise missiles in these attacks has decreased, likely due to stockpile shortages. 6/14

frhoffmann.bsky.social•517 days ago

The total count of long-range strike weapons launched can be categorized as follows: 2,227 long-range drones (Shahed 136) (56.1%), 1,673 cruise missiles (42.2%), and 67 ballistic missiles (1.7%). 7/14

herrfuxx.bsky.social•517 days ago

Great thread! Thank you.

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