🚨Paper alert: The adaptive emission reduction approach was used to simulate 1.5°C & 2°C temperature stabilization in 13 Earth system models. Key findings: remaining carbon budgets 60% larger than in IPCC AR6, budgets evolve over time, pos. emissions under stabilized warming doi.org/10.5194/esd-... - ThreadSky

froeltho.bsky.social • 71 days ago

🚨Paper alert: The adaptive emission reduction approach was used to simulate 1.5°C & 2°C temperature stabilization in 13 Earth system models. Key findings: remaining carbon budgets 60% larger than in IPCC AR6, budgets evolve over time, pos. emissions under stabilized warming
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024

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chaoticbrainperson.bsky.social•71 days ago

📌

froeltho.bsky.social•71 days ago

We show that by applying the adaptive emissions reduction approach (Terhaar et al. 2022, NCC), it is possible that all models converge to the preset temperature level

froeltho.bsky.social•71 days ago

We show that the remaining carbon budgets for the 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming levels are about 60% larger than the median estimate from the IPCC AR6. The study also highlights that some of the differences are attributable to the choice of non-CO2 mitigation scenario.

froeltho.bsky.social•71 days ago

The study also shows that the remaining carbon budgets evolve substantially over time, potentially doubling compared to the initial estimates.

froeltho.bsky.social•71 days ago

The simulations also indicate that meting the 1.5°C warming level requires a 40% reduction in CO2-fe emissions from 2025 to 2030, a 98% reduction from 2025 to 2050, and a stabilization at +1.0 (!) Pg C yr-1 from 2100 onward after the 1.5°C global warming level is reached.

froeltho.bsky.social•71 days ago

Overall, this new type of warming-level-based emission-driven simulation offers a more coherent assessment across climate models and opens up a wide range of possibilities for studying both the carbon cycle and climate impacts, such as extreme events, under climate stabilization.

froeltho.bsky.social•71 days ago

This was a huge collaborative effort across multiple Earth system modeling centers and individual research teams!! Special thanks to Yona Silvy, who led the [email protected] @snf-ch.bsky.social

infopointa.bsky.social•71 days ago

@kevinclimate.bsky.social ❔👆

piersforster.bsky.social•71 days ago

Really interesting to see such a big change from ipcc/ our estimate. How much of the difference is non co2 differences compared to TCRE assumption differences?. I’ll have to dig deep :)

kikstra.bsky.social•71 days ago

Came to say check the same thing! But to help explain the bigger budget AERA-MIP would see non-CO2 declining even faster than in AR6 (1.5 / 2C) scenarios? The discussion says "We opted for ... SSP1-2.6 for all greenhouse gases except CO2 and for anthropogenic aerosols." so aerosols from SSP1-2.6?

kikstra.bsky.social•71 days ago

I looked at Terhaar2022 fig3 for an idea of the development over time but that's just some examples.

Maybe @froeltho.bsky.social or @polarocean.bsky.social has a plot comparing non-co2 (by species [e.g. aersosols] or for some equivalence indicator) to the range in the AR6 database, over time?

polarocean.bsky.social•71 days ago

Everything but CO2 (land use change, CH4, N2O, aerosols, etc) follows SSP126. That should be broadly consistent with the CO2 budgets by the IPCC for 1.5 and 2.0°C? Another factor is the time horizon and the ZEC.

polarocean.bsky.social•71 days ago

If the ZEC is negative, a limited amount of CO2 emissions will keep temperatures stable. Thus, over time the CO2 budget increases as it is the case here. This is equivalent to a change in the TCRE under stabilized temperatures, i.e., temperatures evolve slightly although emissions are zero.

polarocean.bsky.social•71 days ago

Does that make sense? But in the end, the CO2 budget depends very sensitively on the choice of reduction of non-CO2 forcing agents. As illustrated here with the AERA:

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/acaf91

digital-tom.bsky.social•70 days ago

📌

snipfiction.bsky.social•69 days ago

So that’s… a good news ?

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