This is an *excellent* article, Joel. Thanks for writing it up. I've been banging on about Klopp's last season at Dortmund today and for a while now. I think it is deeply salient, especially the comments from Hans-Joachim Watzke
the difference is, dortmund were a team that had great pedigree and were actually playing well, or at least not as bad as their form. i remember it well. lost games inexplicably then started feeling sorry for themselves before finally pulling themselves together and looking very good again
Ange's spurs have none of the credit in the bank and havent played particularly well or been particularly unlucky. They've lost some close games but very few if any that they've dominated and carved the oppo apart. respectfully, Ange and his backers basically have ideas well above their station.
How about a way of looking at Spurs that makes Spurs look bad?
I mean apart from just watching them.
Or the league table.
If we're genuinely just being unlucky there wouldn't be any underlying analysis that would point towards a consistent problem. I'm wondering if maybe there _is_.
Their xGD is 10th, which would be their worst finish in 17 years. Being 14th clearly shows they’ve been unlucky but I think spurs fans rightly don’t want to talk about luck and would rather talk about why it’s disappointing to only be the 10th best team at the moment
This is excellent. I do think there are a few structural issues with Spurs (Son decline, difficulty vs. low block, poor wing play, porous on the counter w/o VDV, hamstrings) that make them especially poor in close games that goes beyond luck.
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https://bsky.app/profile/hallenbeck.thelastboyscout.uk/post/3lfunhggkes2z
I often feel that it's *because* an analyst hasn't watched the game they are freed from the stories and biases the eyes generate.
What would be great would be a similarly considered analysis attempting to reach the opposite conclusion.
What do we see if we look at number of shots conceded, average xG of shots conceded?
Is our xGD abnormal when we are ahead / behind?
I mean apart from just watching them.
Or the league table.
If we're genuinely just being unlucky there wouldn't be any underlying analysis that would point towards a consistent problem. I'm wondering if maybe there _is_.
League average xG/match is roughly 1.4
When Spurs concede <1.4, they tend to win. If they concede more, they tend to lose.
Spurs are not been creating any xG > 1.4 in this stretch, but have held ball.
If possession -> chances is the system, it's not working.
There is black magic afoul in north London.
And, returning players aside, how does a team manage to turn that luck around?
I recognise the answer to both Qs might be “buy better forwards”.