January usually sees a large share of the year’s self-assessment income tax revenues. This year, self-assessment revenues were below the OBR forecast, contributing to the smaller-than-expected budget surplus for the month. This could yet be revised in subsequent outturns. [2/3]
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@duncanweldon.bsky.social
According to the NIESR NiGEM model the increase in revenue from the National Insurance increases will be around £10 billion.
Far short of the OBR forecast of £16 billion and Treasury £25 billion
So even more trouble ahead?
Additional rate would have to be 75-80% to raise as much, even if that didn’t change behaviour (which it would).