China couldnt compete w/the West in producing internal combustion vehicles, so it made a huge bet c. 2009: invest in EVs & help Chinese automakers leapfrog incumbents from the West. That gamble has clearly paid off with declining oil imports & expanding auto exports www.cnn.com/2025/01/23/c... 🔌🚗 🔌💡 - ThreadSky

jessedjenkins.com • 34 days ago

China couldnt compete w/the West in producing internal combustion vehicles, so it made a huge bet c. 2009: invest in EVs & help Chinese automakers leapfrog incumbents from the West. That gamble has clearly paid off with declining oil imports & expanding auto exports https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/23/climate/china-evs-growth-oil-market/index.html 🔌🚗 🔌💡

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glarange.bsky.social•34 days ago

Same thing happened all over the developing world twenty years ago with telecoms. They never had a proper wired infrastructure so leapfrogged straight to wireless.

earthsciinfo.bsky.social•34 days ago

I’m not convinced that they could not compete given all of the industrial sectors that China now leads the world in. They did see an opening and certainly capitalized on it. But it was not particularly hard given that legacy auto makers have been such laggards. Will remarkable tech achievements. 🧪🔌💡

earthsciinfo.bsky.social•34 days ago

Still remarkable tech achievements.

climatax.org•33 days ago

It wasn't a bet. Just clear thinking

zamafir.bsky.social•34 days ago

Inversely, the U.S. willed the current crop of EVs into existence, and likewise made a huge bet EVs wouldn’t be the future and gambled it all away. Tzero, EV1, EV Ranger, a decade before.

China made the bet watching us bring modern EVs to light and totally fall flat after.

shamstepien.bsky.social•34 days ago

Saudi Arabia still claiming robust oil sales in China 😂 Pretty hilarious.

This will hurt global oil producers as China uses 1/4 of global oil. If that tumbles... it'll be dark days for oil producing countries trying to keep prices and sales up.

snoozebuttonben.bsky.social•34 days ago

Not even really a gamble, just a really long-term investment.

billheywood.bsky.social•34 days ago

The real issue is that the West gambled that continuing with old combustion technology was a good idea

There was nothing to stop legacy car makers investing in BEV and creating a battery supply chain whilst China was still way behind

Too late, they chose poorly

jessedjenkins.com•34 days ago

For more on this massive story, listen to our most-downloaded SHIFT KEY episode yet, How China's EV Industry Got So Big with @ilariamazzocco.bsky.social https://heatmap.news/podcast/shift-key-episode-20-ilaria-mazzocco
🔌🚗 🔌💡

wil9876.bsky.social•34 days ago

📌

terrawatts2010.bsky.social•34 days ago

And they’re going to do the same with HVDC technology. https://cleantechnica.com/2024/10/31/china-will-electrify-decarbonize-much-faster-than-europe-unless-eu-puts-act-in-action/

freedomforall.net•34 days ago

It wasn't really a gamble though was it? We have known this transition will be essential for over forty years. That we chose not to act made it less gamble and more common sense.

colinmahoney1.bsky.social•34 days ago

correction in your wording... "China made a bet that one of the two major parties were WAY too embedded in O&G interests to make any progress in the industry at all"

jamespnw.bsky.social•33 days ago

When it comes to the auto industry, Trump wants to compete 20th Century technology.
The 21st Century vehicle market is going electric faster than most people can follow. The US auto industry stands to lose a lot of momentum in the near future.

elirabett.bsky.social•34 days ago

Trumps tariffs on Mexico and Canada will kill off what is left of the US auto industry which is totally integrated across the three counties
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/north-america-and-the-automotive-industry-looking-forward/

mfair.bsky.social•34 days ago

Meanwhile, European car manufacturers are realizing how badly they’ve screwed up.

https://www.eunews.it/en/2025/01/16/cars-european-manufacturers-call-for-green-deal-to-undergo-reality-check-and-realignment/

nadlabs.xyz•34 days ago

Iirc, it’s not that they couldn’t compete, it’s that the quality of those Chinese gas cars was bad, so no one bought them, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the same is true with their evs, but from what I see, evs are already disposable quick use vehicles so ig china has something going for them

jessedjenkins.com•33 days ago

"the quality of their cars was so bad no one bought them" is the definition of "couldn't compete"

jessedjenkins.com•33 days ago

On EVs, the story is very different. The build quality and tech is world leading. BYD alone sold 4.3 million EVs and plug-in hybrids in 2024, and by Q4 they were closing in on Ford in rankings of The world's largest auto makers. That's one of many quality brands from China (also Zeekr, Nio, etc)

nadlabs.xyz•33 days ago

okay that's really interesting, I didn't know that at all, do you know how safe/secure these vehicles are in comparsion to western manufacturers? I remember hearing news items about chinese EVs catching fire a few years ago but none as of late.

jessedjenkins.com•33 days ago

BYD is on sale in Europe, Australia, Canada, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, etc. so comparable to safety requirements in those markets. Geely is parent company of Zeekr, Volvo and formerly Polestar, and Volvo gets top safety ratings. MG is owned by SAIC and is on sale in UK, EU, Australia etc.

bennettelder.net•33 days ago

For crash tests Euro NCAP is the one to check in Europe. BYD, Zeekr, Polestar, NIO all have 5 stars on the models tested. Pulled up VW for a baseline to compare to and they have several models that get fewer stars.

anotherwealth.bsky.social•34 days ago

saw a cybertruck in Calgary today

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