I actually don't think there's much cause to deviate course over the next 4 years. I'd be shocked if any allies broke out by 2029 (maybe Ukraine has an ace in the hole, I don't know but it seems fanciful), and while the trust may be eroded in a big way, extended deterrence is still valuable. - ThreadSky

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midlifesuezcrisis.bsky.social • 3 days ago

I actually don't think there's much cause to deviate course over the next 4 years. I'd be shocked if any allies broke out by 2029 (maybe Ukraine has an ace in the hole, I don't know but it seems fanciful), and while the trust may be eroded in a big way, extended deterrence is still valuable.

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midlifesuezcrisis.bsky.social•3 days ago

Further, unless FR/UK embark on a rapid buildup, the US arsenal will still be the only one able to really counterbalance Russia and/or China. The nuclear-latency genie may not go back in the bottle but we and our allies will still reap mutual benefit from us taking most of the burden.

midlifesuezcrisis.bsky.social•3 days ago

(The benefit for us goes back to leverage + some restoration of trust + the continued intangible benefit of fewer nth-country nuclear weapons, which I maintain is SUPER desirable for us long term)

lipstickscribbles.bsky.social•2 days ago

I agree I wouldn't expect a breakout in 4 years to happen, but if I've essentially contracted with the US nuclear umbrella for security and now the US has clearly threatened rescission I don't see how a responsible state doesn't start hedging their bets, permanently.

Not overnight, but long term.

midlifesuezcrisis.bsky.social•2 days ago

Yeah, I agree that we are probably permanently damaging nonproliferation. I couldn't blame EU or SEA allies for hedging bets in a big way. I just think that a notional sane 2029 president would want to stay the current course on nuclear force design.

lipstickscribbles.bsky.social•2 days ago

Also agree, the benefits of pseudo monopoly clearly weigh in our favor. Why breaching that trust reads nth order stupid.

I just don't think pinky promising not to cheat again is going to work.

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