(The benefit for us goes back to leverage + some restoration of trust + the continued intangible benefit of fewer nth-country nuclear weapons, which I maintain is SUPER desirable for us long term)
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I agree I wouldn't expect a breakout in 4 years to happen, but if I've essentially contracted with the US nuclear umbrella for security and now the US has clearly threatened rescission I don't see how a responsible state doesn't start hedging their bets, permanently.
Yeah, I agree that we are probably permanently damaging nonproliferation. I couldn't blame EU or SEA allies for hedging bets in a big way. I just think that a notional sane 2029 president would want to stay the current course on nuclear force design.
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Not overnight, but long term.
I just don't think pinky promising not to cheat again is going to work.