(I actually have something coming out soon on @sodrock.bsky.social's substack soon on this issue and Taiwan.) So if you're Japan and you suddenly find yourself abandoned to face China, you have to consider how fast you can get a big deterrent - not just your access to U/Pu etc. - ThreadSky

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midlifesuezcrisis.bsky.social • 3 days ago

(I actually have something coming out soon on @sodrock.bsky.social's substack soon on this issue and Taiwan.) So if you're Japan and you suddenly find yourself abandoned to face China, you have to consider how fast you can get a big deterrent - not just your access to U/Pu etc.

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midlifesuezcrisis.bsky.social•3 days ago

To get deep into the technical aspects of getting material -- again, there are a lot of ways to skin the cat, centrifuges are just one part of the puzzle. You can try to hide diversions from reactors (this is hard and the IAEA will slap you), or you can go all out and build reactors just to make Pu.

midlifesuezcrisis.bsky.social•3 days ago

(This ofc has huge costs and would be ill advised unless global material safeguards just die entirely). People have hypothesized about novel/poorly safeguarded fissiles as well. Maybe you build funny neutron beams to breed fissiles. Longer term, fusion reactors create risks here too theoretically.

maverickbrett.bsky.social•3 days ago

Personally I am partial to using another bomb as your fissile making method it has a nice stupidity to the funniness (and it's Von Neumen approved), although neutron beams are suitably silly but I have thoughts on controlling that as a proliferation method.

midlifesuezcrisis.bsky.social•3 days ago

It's all bombs, all the way down.

maverickbrett.bsky.social•3 days ago

All I want is to annoy life cycle modelers when they try to figure out where a circle starts.

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