Blog: The Tenth Recipient Test. The median size for a bilateral aid country relationship (US aid to Vanuatu, UK aid to Cameroon for eg) is about $1.5 million. Only 7% of bilateral relationships are >$100m. 'Country programs' make little sense below that level. - ThreadSky

charlesjkenny.bsky.social • 86 days ago

Blog: The Tenth Recipient Test.

The median size for a bilateral aid country relationship (US aid to Vanuatu, UK aid to Cameroon for eg) is about $1.5 million.

Only 7% of bilateral relationships are >$100m.

'Country programs' make little sense below that level.

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charlesjkenny.bsky.social•86 days ago

(Before saying "$100m is a lot!" It is less than the cost of a bat shed built over rail lines in the woodlands of Buckinghamshire in the UK. Less than one twenty-sixth the GNI of the world’s poorest economy, Burundi.)

charlesjkenny.bsky.social•86 days ago

The largest bilateral aid relationship for fifteen of the thirty-two donors in the DAC is less than $100 million. Across DAC donors median size of the largest relationship is $90 million, worth a<0.1 percent of recipient GNI.

Figure: # of bilateral programs >$100m by donor.

charlesjkenny.bsky.social•86 days ago

Only five donors see their tenth largest bilateral relationship >$100m. Donors should ask: is it really plausible to imagine having a noticeable difference at the country level with the resources you provide to your tenth-largest recipient? If not, is the country program model the right one?

charlesjkenny.bsky.social•86 days ago

New Zealand’s 10th largest program in 2021 with Indonesia, worth $16m. Indonesia’s GNI is in the region of $1,335,866m. And yet, there is a negotiated development partnership agreement covering energy, agriculture, risk management, knowledge, and skills, with pages of commitments from both sides.

charlesjkenny.bsky.social•86 days ago

Iceland’s largest aid program with Uganda: $8m in 2021. Aid country strategy for Uganda objectives include “enhanced inclusive access to quality basic services and strengthened institutions to reduce poverty and inequality, improve living standards and increase opportunities...”

charlesjkenny.bsky.social•86 days ago

If your goal for aid is about trying to improve development outcomes, limit bilateral programs to countries where you have minimum viable scale. Give ambassadors a couple of million discretionary dollars to fund something that will bring goodwill. Pass the rest to a multilateral agency like IDA.

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