No. Americans' economic sentiment seems to be mainly driven by partisan ideology with only the loosest connection to economic realities. And it's sentiment, more than economic realities, that relates to political behavior. I hate it. - ThreadSky

aaronsojourner.org • 55 days ago

No. Americans' economic sentiment seems to be mainly driven by partisan ideology with only the loosest connection to economic realities.

And it's sentiment, more than economic realities, that relates to political behavior.

I hate it.

Reposted from RM (they/them)

does any of you believe that the negative consumer sentiment of the last say 2 years reflected something real that just "isn't captured" by the stats? if so, how do you square that with the fact that it's so polarised across party lines and is now well up among republicans?

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jwmason.bsky.social•55 days ago

How confident are you that it isn’t a mix of both? Or, maybe better, what range of proportions of each seems plausible to you?

aaronsojourner.org•55 days ago

It's definitely a mix but a lot more ideology and a lot less reality than I'd like.

jwmason.bsky.social•55 days ago

To me it’s not entirely clear what reality would mean here. If we focus on the labor market, then things look very positive. But if we look at broader measures of income and economic security then less so. And the baseline we use for comparison matters a lot more than usual.

aaronsojourner.org•55 days ago

Here's an attempt to uncover drivers.

Partisan sentiment swings largely cancel when POTUS flips tho GOP swings a bit more. But the raw swings show how important partisan ideology is at the individual level.
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-paradox-between-the-macroeconomy-and-household-sentiment/

jwmason.bsky.social•55 days ago

Thanks, this looks helpful.

aaronsojourner.org•55 days ago

The average in a national time series is more reasonable than the individual level.

mherringe.bsky.social•55 days ago

I’ve tried reality-via statistics & evidence-on my Trumpy relatives. Nothing works. They tend to resolutely disregard any facts: “why should I believe that?” The rightwing has been planting those seeds for a while now.

celestedf.bsky.social•55 days ago

Not being an economist myself, I can’t address this issue in terms of macro measurements but instead look to micro observations of how local communities are struggling. Yet those stories seem invisible in the larger economic story. The reality is - MAGA or not - *many* are struggling. 1/

celestedf.bsky.social•55 days ago

Most cities have sizable facebook groups for info/resource sharing & since federal covid supports ended I’ve observed a big uptick in pleas to community members for housing, food and employment assistance. This affects perceptions & feeds the MAGA talking points. 2/

celestedf.bsky.social•55 days ago

I’m personally doing well, but 3 family members who fit the MAGA mold (no college, white, decreased *relative* financial standing since 1980s) are barely scraping by yet not poor enough to access social safety net support. Those struggling on the edge seem invisible. 3/

minnesota-boy.bsky.social•55 days ago

This is totally worth the read.

socio-steve.bsky.social•55 days ago

It does offer an opportunity for the other social sciences to contribute to our understanding of the political economy though. :)

atwilliams.bsky.social•55 days ago

economics is feelings all the way down in a demand-led system, turns out

erinslick.bsky.social•55 days ago

And it’s been that way for years. To maga Trump really did save the economy from Obama. Never mind that they all drive 50-70k dollar trucks and own homes. Facts don’t matter

missbingley.bsky.social•55 days ago

I am not an economist, just an observer of people.
I’m convinced the surge in lifestyle social media content showing travel, handbags, clothing & makeup hauls, young families buying homes, is paid propaganda to create the sentiment that the economy is ⬇️ and increase the appetite to borrow on credit

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