Happy #JobsDay!
At 8:30 am ET, BLS delivers the most-important signals abt how economy is changing.
Forecasts’ center:
+169K jobs
Unemployment rate (UR) stable at 4.1%
Lots of complexity today, so I'm posting this earlier-than-usual with a longer-than-usual preamble.
At 8:30 am ET, BLS delivers the most-important signals abt how economy is changing.
Forecasts’ center:
+169K jobs
Unemployment rate (UR) stable at 4.1%
Lots of complexity today, so I'm posting this earlier-than-usual with a longer-than-usual preamble.
Comments
Labor market strength is great, not a problem. If wages & employment grow without consumer prices growing, through increased labor productivity or reduced employer profits, it's fine.
I learned #JobsReport as senior economist for labor at the White House Council of Economic Advisers in Obama & Trump 1 admins.
CEA gets advance view of monthly #JobsReport. I’d analyze & brief WH leaders & Labor Sec.
1) Labor market context,
2) Technical revisions & likely misinterpretations to guard against, &
3) Trust the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
1.A) Labor market’s strong:
low unemployment rate,
high rate of worker job security with low rate of bosses firing staff (figure),
few working part time due to lack of full time offer,
wages growing,
high participation and employment rates by age…
most of those signals were stronger a year ago.
Hires rate like 2013 is particularly worrisome, falling since Fed's hikes (figure).
The labor market is historically quite good for the employed but tough for the small share who are unemployed.
This thread has a lot of info.
Expect deliberate politically-motivated misinterpretations in 2 main areas.
https://bsky.app/profile/aaronsojourner.org/post/3lhbsi3ngd22o
https://bsky.app/profile/aaronsojourner.org/post/3lhby6scitk2w
https://bsky.app/profile/aaronsojourner.org/post/3lhlnjvrede2f