Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast of 2025Q1 GDP growth took a big nose dive yesterday from a forecast of 2.3% GDP growth rate to -1.5% GDP contraction. What is underneath that? www.atlantafed.org/cqer/researc... - ThreadSky

aaronsojourner.org • 2 days ago

Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast of 2025Q1 GDP growth took a big nose dive yesterday from a forecast of 2.3% GDP growth rate to -1.5% GDP contraction.

What is underneath that?
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

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aaronsojourner.org•2 days ago

Tables show evolution of forecast as new information arrived.

Yesterday's change was driven by a huge revision in the net export forecast, with both forecasted declining exports and rising imports.

metrogram.bsky.social•2 days ago

There's a LOT to say about #Trumponomics = policy chaos, policies being proposed are at best idiotic (at worst... 🫣).

Anyway, it's clear that some did a LOT of tactical buying& importing *ahead* of Trmp & his #tariffs. So... January has be seen as anomaly.

metrogram.bsky.social•2 days ago

That's my most optimistic hot take, fwiw.

aaronsojourner.org•2 days ago

Digging deeper, it wasn't yesterday's new manufacturing data that drove change. Was Advance Economic Indicators Report (AEIR).

The AEIR estimate was that the trade deficit in goods was up 25% in Jan 2025 vs prior month.

However, this estimate is noisy. See * notes.
https://www.census.gov/econ/indicators/current/index.html

aaronsojourner.org•20 hours ago

https://bsky.app/profile/jc-econ.bsky.social/post/3lji7cwq4ss23

aaronsojourner.org•15 hours ago

Crazy, Atlanta Fed's 2025Q1 GDPNow nowcast falling off a cliff, to -2.8% today.

Friday's huge drop due to net exports & personal consumption expenditures (PCE).

Another drop today from more bad news re PCE, residential investment, & equipment.

It ain't a change in Government Spending driving it.

aaronsojourner.org•15 hours ago

Predicting is hard, especially the future and especially^2 in real time. The nowcasts are noisy and reality could turn out quite different.

But this decline means that, according to historical patterns, the signals coming in the last few business days are really bad.

rdmullin.bsky.social•15 hours ago

Seems like the indicators are strongly pointing to a very bad inflection point. Confirmation with more data will come in very soon.

aaronsojourner.org•12 hours ago

Federal spending is up 13% in 2025 above 2024 thru end of February. Lower Government Spending ain't driving this.

airwolf.bsky.social•12 hours ago

Anybody who thinks of them as more than a directional indicator (with a bit of a magnitude reading, at extremes, like...now) is fooling themselves IMO

gmacdonell.bsky.social•19 hours ago

I suspect there might be a more substantial issue here. They are seeing an inventory build via imports in the import data first and will see it in the inventory data later. So what is logically offsetting shows up as something bad. Unless it is all the gold thing. I am assuming without knowing....

gmacdonell.bsky.social•19 hours ago

Yeah, the numbers involved here suggest it is not mostly non-monetary gold. That is a component of industrial supplies, not all of it, and that component is just over half the deterioration. There seems to be something else going on in addition. But, yes, it is misleading. And GDPnow is rote.

6thface.bsky.social•2 days ago

Oh good, I noticed that Coca Cola increased the cost of 12 packs 10% this week in anticipation of the cost of aluminum going up. I am sure that inflation will get worse and the Fed will be forced to increase rates again.

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