lemonde.fr/international/… The speed of the M23’s advance on Bukavu has been truly incredible and suggests that the Congolese army is reeling from its recent losses. This is devastating for the DRC but it’s unclear if painful but likely necessary steps will be taken. 🧵thread🧵 - ThreadSky

africatakes.bsky.social • 8 days ago

https://lemonde.fr/international/…

The speed of the M23’s advance on Bukavu has been truly incredible and suggests that the Congolese army is reeling from its recent losses. This is devastating for the DRC but it’s unclear if painful but likely necessary steps will be taken.

🧵thread🧵

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africatakes.bsky.social•8 days ago

Despite talk of a counter offensive and the stated intention to continue fighting by numerous senior personnel, this does not yet appear to have been followed up with significant action. No substantial new troop deployments/ efforts to improve the army’s morale/ new equipment.

africatakes.bsky.social•8 days ago

It is highly unlikely that Congo has the military capacity to retake its territory. So it must either concede to Kagame’s demand to directly negotiate with and offer concessions to the M23 (rather humiliating) or find new ways to escalate.

africatakes.bsky.social•8 days ago

This could include a mass nationwide mobilisation (such as seen in Ethiopia during the TPLFs push to Addis), which would likely risk substantially escalating intercommunal violence and have long term implications for national stability (how do you manage a surge in armed men).

africatakes.bsky.social•8 days ago

It could also include relying increasingly on foreign powers for military support. There is a significant risk of Burundi getting much more involved in the conflict, reports suggest Tshisekedi was recently seeking Angolan military support.

africatakes.bsky.social•8 days ago

Either escalations are unlikely to prove decisive in the short term and would likely only worsen and drag out the conflict.

Regardless, for now the immediate concerns are:
- A likely renewed spike in protests targeting international embassies in Kinshasa.

africatakes.bsky.social•8 days ago

(This threat will be highest for the embassies of western and African seemed to back Rwanda, the US, France, Kenya).
- a likely deterioration in the military’s confidence in Tshisekedi. I don’t think this makes a coup inevitable.

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