It is highly unlikely that Congo has the military capacity to retake its territory. So it must either concede to Kagame’s demand to directly negotiate with and offer concessions to the M23 (rather humiliating) or find new ways to escalate.
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This could include a mass nationwide mobilisation (such as seen in Ethiopia during the TPLFs push to Addis), which would likely risk substantially escalating intercommunal violence and have long term implications for national stability (how do you manage a surge in armed men).
It could also include relying increasingly on foreign powers for military support. There is a significant risk of Burundi getting much more involved in the conflict, reports suggest Tshisekedi was recently seeking Angolan military support.
(This threat will be highest for the embassies of western and African seemed to back Rwanda, the US, France, Kenya).
- a likely deterioration in the military’s confidence in Tshisekedi. I don’t think this makes a coup inevitable.
Whoever took charge would face immediate and substantial challenges and possibly new open rebellion, particularly in Kasai, but it’s certainly a risk to watch out for.
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Regardless, for now the immediate concerns are:
- A likely renewed spike in protests targeting international embassies in Kinshasa.
- a likely deterioration in the military’s confidence in Tshisekedi. I don’t think this makes a coup inevitable.