Been counting hypothetical dark doldrums (dds) in Germany for the years 1982-2016, to provide some data for returning discussions. At end of (long) 🧵: reasoning why dds are a distraction in planning a carbon neutral electricity system, and some technical details. 1/ 🔌💡 - ThreadSky

kopfgold.bsky.social • 100 days ago

Been counting hypothetical dark doldrums (dds) in Germany for the years 1982-2016, to provide some data for returning discussions. At end of (long) 🧵: reasoning why dds are a distraction in planning a carbon neutral electricity system, and some technical details. 1/ 🔌💡

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kopfgold.bsky.social•100 days ago

I am basing the analysis on the "T45 Strom" scenario from "Langfristszenarien". Germany specific weather data is provided by ENTSO-E, the demand curve taken from @oliverruhnau.bsky.social & Staffan Qvist, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac4dc8. All calculation are to be taken as approximations ;) 2/

kopfgold.bsky.social•100 days ago

The method of using reanalysis data is explained here ;) 3/

kopfgold.bsky.social•100 days ago

Before counting one has to define the term dark doldrums quantitatively. I've looked at four ways to do it and will start with what @leonhardprobst.bsky.social & @energy-charts.bsky.social from Fraunhofer ISE put forward in this podcast: https://buff.ly/41SPgtN 4/

kopfgold.bsky.social•100 days ago

Probst & Burger define a doldrum day to be one where renewable production in average covers less that 20% of demand. Over 35 years we find the following: 5/

kopfgold.bsky.social•100 days ago

Next two definitions by Ohlendorf & @wpschill.bsky.social, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab91e9. A doldrum hour is defined as an hour with mean wind and PV power of less than 10% of installed capacity. A dd event of type cbt10 (const. below threshold)
is a period of consecutive doldrum hours. 6/

kopfgold.bsky.social•100 days ago

A dd-event of type mbt10 (mean below threshold) is a period where mean wind and PV power is less than 10% of installed capacity.
7/

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