A short thread on Milorad Dodik's latest threat - and what the European response needs to be. www.klix.ba/vijesti/bih/... - ThreadSky

kurtbassuener.bsky.social • 4 days ago

A short thread on Milorad Dodik's latest threat - and what the European response needs to be.
https://www.klix.ba/vijesti/bih/dodik-otkrio-sta-su-dvije-faze-odgovora-na-presudu-rs-ce-sa-srbijom-napraviti-konfederaciju/250223011

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kurtbassuener.bsky.social•4 days ago

2/ In an interview w/ Russia Today, he outlined a two-phase plan that the Republika Srpska, which he has led for 19 years, would pursue.
1) He'd demand a return to what he's called "original Dayton" - a state shorn of institutions like the Armed Forces & the court at which he is being tried...

kurtbassuener.bsky.social•4 days ago

3/ ... Were Phase 1 not successful, Phase 2 would be the RS withdrawing from the Dayton Agreement and its constitutional arrangements, leading to federation with Serbia, which he claimed would be fast - 6 months.

A few points to consider...

kurtbassuener.bsky.social•4 days ago

4/ The first is that the verdict in his case before the Court of BiH for defying High Representative orders is expected Wednesday. The Court of BiH is among the many institutions that were established since Dayton, through inter-entity agreement. Dodik was ready to endorse all of them 19 years ago

kurtbassuener.bsky.social•4 days ago

5/ A second is how dissolution state institutions like the Armed Forces of BiH could go. We @dpcglobal.bsky.social have outlined these scenarios in that past: https://www.academia.edu/18411611/The_Armed_Forces_of_Bosnia_and_Herzegovina_Unfulfilled_Promise

kurtbassuener.bsky.social•4 days ago

6/ Bottom line? Badly.

There are lots of problems with Dodik's scenario for him (and Vucic) as well. But both are feeling great pressure now - and neither is genuinely popular - the likelihood of undertaking precipitous, dangerous action cannot be discounted as mere rhetoric, a constant refrain...

kurtbassuener.bsky.social•4 days ago

7/ ...refrain for 19 years. And esp. not now, given geopolitical alignments in the West inflicted by US Trump administration. Dodik may feel that this is now or never, particularly as he faces the potential of imprisonment and/or being banned from politics.
https://balkaninsight.com/2025/02/19/bosnia-prosecution-seeks-prison-sentence-and-political-ban-for-dodik/

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