It seems silly to think about strategy right now, but my latest is relevant to Euro-defense, even if the US is too busy self-destructing to do anything else. open.substack.com/pub/deadcarl... - ThreadSky

deadcarl.bsky.social • 12 days ago

It seems silly to think about strategy right now, but my latest is relevant to Euro-defense, even if the US is too busy self-destructing to do anything else.

https://open.substack.com/pub/deadcarl/p/the-death-of-conquest-and-the-costs?r=1ro41m&utm_medium=ios

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deadcarl.bsky.social•12 days ago

I argue that Russia is very unlikely to be in a position to start another war, even if it were to defeat Ukraine because of the costs of occupation.

At the same time, punishing aggression is in Western strategic interest and failure to do so signals incapacity.

deadcarl.bsky.social•12 days ago

This is not just to adversaries, but also to domestic audiences. Failure to uphold commitments is a betrayal of public trust and corrosive to civic mindedness.

It’s therefore imperative that Europe meet its obligations to Ukraine—for its own sake.

paul-fabien.bsky.social•12 days ago

Of course Russia wouldn’t need to immediately engage in a kinetic war — they are well on the way of overthrowing the U.S. without firing a shot. Russia’s defeat in Ukraine will help to stifle their success in non-kinetic warfare I suspect.

roninmacbeth.bsky.social•12 days ago

IIRC, the French needed their empire to remain competitive with the Germans because when French men were needed to fill the ranks of the army, their places in the factories had to be taken by colonial subjects, and that sets aside the colonial troops they raised.

roninmacbeth.bsky.social•12 days ago

The second-largest colonial empire in the world was barely enough to hold back a relatively industrialized economy.

ctreese2.bsky.social•12 days ago

This is a solid analysis. My other takeways is that we see in the current U.S. administration's sympathy toward Russia, the seeds of the same kind of thinking. Prounouncements like "we should've taken the oil & cede us your mineral concessions" are in the same vein. Not hard to imagine from a<

deadcarl.bsky.social•12 days ago

Trump’s obsession with territory is even more bizarre than Putin’s. Reviving Manifest Destiny is reaching back more than a century. Putin at least has the Soviet Union to have nostalgia for.

haydonmp.bsky.social•12 days ago

Otherwise, what is his legacy item though?

I think that’s what a lot of that comes down to.

deadcarl.bsky.social•12 days ago

He’s the president of the United States. There’s any number of things you could work on if you wanted to leave a legacy. But most of those things don’t also “own the libs” so they’re ruled out.

ctreese2.bsky.social•12 days ago

Well, if the kind of people who think this way love to have town squares and statues raised to them think that is the model of legacy, we typically know that ends too. A need to put your name on every building is a similar mentality.

haydonmp.bsky.social•12 days ago

I don’t disagree with you, merely trying to identify the behavior.

davidjorgonson.bsky.social•12 days ago

I think Trump is an "apres ma la deluge" guy not a legacy guy
He wants to steal land because he's a scammer and thief

ctreese2.bsky.social•12 days ago

I only read it that way too. Totally agree.

ctreese2.bsky.social•12 days ago

>person who's idea of wealth is land and buildings. The push to have an "ownership" stake in Gaza bespeaks the same traps...and the same risks of occupation. Land really only makes sense from the standpoint of access but that is a framework of trade, not plunder. Good piece.

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