The fact of the matter is that you cannot eliminate *measuring the trailing indicator* from your approach to measuring success, if your success is defined by trailing indicators.
Your hypothesis is not enough.
Your hypothesis is not enough.
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Single loop learning is merely, is the task Done? If not, keep doing it.
Double-loop learning checks, is the output of the task helpful? If not, choose a different task.
Triple-loop learning asks, are we framing "helpful" right? What do we WANT?
- Go dig a trench.
- How long should the trench be?
- From this fencepost, until lunchtime.
Alt text: a notification that says "heat risk change" but not what the change is.
It comes from shitty managers who bought the lie "if you can't measure it, you can't manage it." As a result, the leading indicator "# of clicks" became its own goal, divorced from any downstream value.
Managers who only know how to measure NPS ask for NPS increases.
Managers who only know click maximizing ask for more clicks.
Neither is actually valuable.
"It is wrong to suppose that if you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it – a costly myth."
https://deming.org/myth-if-you-cant-measure-it-you-cant-manage-it/