short rates had already got the message, the problem was elsewhere for over-optimism. bit of an over-reaction in the 2yr, pulled back a few bps today, while 10-30 up a few bps. the reality is no-one, including the Fed, has a clue what happens now, so 🤷♂️
honestly, I find it impossible to forecast the short end given we don't know extent or timing of trade related policies, and related impact on CPI, consumption and growth. outlook is more unclear than it has been for a long time; am resigned to waiting for evidence in Q1 now...
Transmission mechanism from trade policy is slow, so I think you will be waiting until min Q3 before impacts start to be seen even if policy enacted in Jan. The economic cogs grind slow
we both know the mkt will take a view before the effects show up though. and it's a moving target depending on how other countries react, escalation is distinctly possible. again, it makes sense to me to wait for at least the beginnings of clarity in late Jan before committing to much of a view.
If I was a betting man I'd say 21000 more likely next for S&P100 than 22000 again. Decent watchlist IG provide for such occasions, too much to keep an eye on otherwise. $BTC taking a breather also
happy to see crypto underperforming, that's fine given it's a speculative 'asset' only. looks like the $ still has a use after all.
given it's 18th December, you'd have to think instos are pretty much done already with de-grossing/book squaring, so end of day volume stats will be interesting.
Comments
given it's 18th December, you'd have to think instos are pretty much done already with de-grossing/book squaring, so end of day volume stats will be interesting.