"directly decreases GDP per capita" in the same way that Bill Gates walking into a bar directly increases the average income. This kind of elementary arithmetic fallacy should have no place in public life - ThreadSky

dsquareddigest.bsky.social • 12 days ago

"directly decreases GDP per capita" in the same way that Bill Gates walking into a bar directly increases the average income. This kind of elementary arithmetic fallacy should have no place in public life

Reposted from Iain Mansfield

2. Mass low-skilled immigration directly decreases GDP per capita, as well as putting (more) pressure on house prices, depresssing wages and weakening social cohesion.

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willadams.bsky.social•12 days ago

Asking here from a place of pure ignorance - is that not a danger with measurements of productivity too? Or is that accounted for?

dsquareddigest.bsky.social•12 days ago

Yes exactly the same thing; it's called the "batting average effect" (productivity tends to rise in recessions because least productive workers are made unemployed first). You have to be careful that you are not just picking up the laws of arithmetic when doing any sort of division with aggregates

willadams.bsky.social•12 days ago

Thanks!

cursed.monster•12 days ago

Lies, damn lies, and statistics, indeed

captainmcdan.bsky.social•12 days ago

A friend of mine once said of a mutual colleague "when he came here from Scotland the average IQ of both countries went up."

dsquareddigest.bsky.social•12 days ago

The Will Rogers effect! https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Will_Rogers_phenomenon immigration from African countries to the UK quite likely lowers GDP per capita in both for this reason

captainmcdan.bsky.social•12 days ago

well there you go, for something like 20 years I thought he'd made that joke up himself

paddycarter.bsky.social•12 days ago

I'm going to risk disgrace by disagreeing here. If you were interested in being able to redistribute income in your bar, Bill Gates' entry is good news. Is there no sense in which a country has that sort of perspective?

dsquareddigest.bsky.social•12 days ago

I don't think so, because the analogy isn't quite exact as Bill Gates isn't working in the bar. The workers who are lowering GDP per capita are also earning less than average incomes; they "directly" affect the distribution too

paddycarter.bsky.social•12 days ago

earning less than average is not the same thing as imposing on others by being a net fiscal recipient, but that point is reached somewhere

paddycarter.bsky.social•12 days ago

Hmm, thinking about this a bit more. Even if you have fewer immigrants who are net fiscal recipients, once everything has reshuffled, prices and wages and unemployment rates changed, you're not necessarily fiscally stronger

roylonergan.bsky.social•12 days ago

Are you worse off though? And what timescale are you looking at for everything to settle down? Do you credit migrants with the effect of their kids?

paddycarter.bsky.social•12 days ago

Yeah I am not sure. This is making me wonder whether there have been any cases of large low earner immigrant flows causing reported GDP/capita growth to fall, and people (wrongly?) inferring the economy is doing worse

leftoutside.bsky.social•12 days ago

Don't think we should Simpson's paradox our way into believing that migration isn't beneficial to migrants if they end up on below average earnings.

dsquareddigest.bsky.social•12 days ago

Even being a net fiscal recipient isn't really a useful criterion if they're less of a recipient than the person who would otherwise be in their position was.

paddycarter.bsky.social•12 days ago

Yeah, i got there in the end. Still I wonder if there are some (extreme) cases where large low earning immigration flows can make a country worse off. https://bsky.app/profile/paddycarter.bsky.social/post/3lpbtmj6a622k

paddycarter.bsky.social•12 days ago

Oh I didn't realise that was the argument. I thought it was about making the country poorer somehow. Apologies, hazard of jumping in without following from the top

leftoutside.bsky.social•12 days ago

I've seen various people making arguments about affects on the average person clearly making a compositional mistake.

paddycarter.bsky.social•12 days ago

Certainly if you want a quick idea of how well off a country is, GDP per capita is a sensible number to look at. I understand the point that adding individuals at any point in the income distribution doesn't immediately affect anyone else. But I think there's more to it than that.

shmmeee.bsky.social•11 days ago

If you want an idea of what you can spend on public services income per capita matters.

michaelharker.bsky.social•12 days ago

It isn't done in good faith though is it? This is about narrative construction using pseudo-evidence.

dsquareddigest.bsky.social•12 days ago

No I think it's done out of not understanding that "GDP per capita" has a numerator and a denominator; this is largely on economists who overuse it as if it was a fundamental fact about the world.

valoisdubins.bsky.social•12 days ago

A lot of apparently sensible people follow this guy.

Why?

This is an embarrassing thread.

pseudonymice.bsky.social•12 days ago

Wait till they learn what the birth of a baby does to per capita incomes.

splitrailfence.bsky.social•12 days ago

The author reminds me of the old Trump swindle that if we don't post covid numbers, there will be less illness and spread.

splitrailfence.bsky.social•12 days ago

He blames mental health costs on immigrants. He complains that one of the richest and most industrialized nations on Earth has high energy costs.
I once owned a small business & was never surprised my energy costs increased during my busy season because my business was open more & getting more use.

mariosrichards.bsky.social•12 days ago

It's the "kick *everyone* out of the UK to isolate the GDP monopole".

mariosrichards.bsky.social•12 days ago

See also "behead everyone in the UK to instantly create infinite GDP/capita".

alanchaplin.bsky.social•12 days ago

The claims that pensions auto enrolment reduced average contributions used to drive me nuts! You’ve got to include the zeros 😤

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