There are three scenarios that I see for the protests in Georgia, ranked by my perception of likelihood, considering how the regime behaves in recent days: 🧵
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1. A relatively quicker victory where the regime’s physical violence is once again unhinged on a mass scale that leads to another round of sharp deterioration on the ground and quick desertion by regime pillars; 2/
2. A somewhat slower victory where the regime physical violence is relatively limited and the society goes through a complete cycle of biblical cleansing, with new social contract & paradigms consolidating before the regime is forced to concede, rather than simultaneously with/after our victory; 3/
3. A very slow victory with initially largely suppressed street protests that launches a prolonged guerilla societal protest and economic instability due to the regime's oppressive and economic inability to stabilize itself as a dictatorship. 4/
When we ask for sanctions, we ask to help us avoid whatever costs can be avoided. They cannot win, but they can cause much suffering to Georgians and instability to the wider region.
#GeorgiaProtests 5/5.
There is another scenario you need to consider: the regime slowly consolidating control over media and Internet, making impossible to coordinate resistance.
Failure to consider this scenario will lead Georgia to become a new Belarus.
«Hope for the best, but plan for the worst.» Sun Tzu
Even if they make connection impossible, they cannot stabilize their dictatorship due to oppressive, social and economic fabric. I have a post about it that I can send to you if you wish. So, that would result in guerrilla efforts.
Protests against tendencies are a thing, a regime already in power is a totally different beast
Hong-Kong failed. Belarus opposition failed. Hungary next?
Yes, Russia is in no position to "help" now, but still…
Failing to consider this scenario is a huge mistake, possibly a fatal one
- 2 victories in Moldova,
- ongoing protests in Georgia,
- Romania,
- Poland - former far right government officials implicated in scandals, up to PM are being prosecuted,
- protests against Fico,
- failure of Le Pen and FN in France last election,
- Orban being in real trouble.
The solution is paralysis of regime by mass civil disobedience, mass civil occupation of all government, law enforcement & military sites. Identification & marginalisation of all regime affiliates. A coordinated mobilisation in other words
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#GeorgiaProtests 5/5.
Failure to consider this scenario will lead Georgia to become a new Belarus.
«Hope for the best, but plan for the worst.» Sun Tzu
Solidarność won in Poland in 1989 despite censorship, total media control by communists and 10years of repressions.
You can coordinate a revolution with just a few landline phones and people talking to each other.
Internet (and everything that comes with it) is also a very powerful social control tool
Aee eaceful protests working in russian-occupied Georgia regions?
You need to step-up the game. Start global strikes, blockades et cetera, while you can
Look at successful protests against authoritarian tendencies in Europe in the last decade.
Plus, you can have propaganda, but when propaganda is too much detached from reality it will fail.
Hong-Kong failed. Belarus opposition failed. Hungary next?
Yes, Russia is in no position to "help" now, but still…
Failing to consider this scenario is a huge mistake, possibly a fatal one
- 2 victories in Moldova,
- ongoing protests in Georgia,
- Romania,
- Poland - former far right government officials implicated in scandals, up to PM are being prosecuted,
- protests against Fico,
- failure of Le Pen and FN in France last election,
- Orban being in real trouble.
Belarus and China are extremes. Belarus had 1 free election ever and Hong Kong is small compared to China.
Belarus will be free when RuSSians stop supporting Luka. Opposition is very active- in EU.
Can Georgia’s shadowy despot survive? https://www.economist.com/europe/2025/02/06/can-georgias-shadowy-despot-survive