If inflation keeps ticking up, they can’t lower rates anymore. If and when defaults start accelerating that will make rates rise, not fall. - ThreadSky

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orwellonedibles.bsky.social • 2 days ago

If inflation keeps ticking up, they can’t lower rates anymore.

If and when defaults start accelerating that will make rates rise, not fall.

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vegassteve702.bsky.social•2 days ago

Inflation going up would of course affect things. But prices go down when unemployment goes up. A million people were laid off .. this week. The trickle down will be worse.

orwellonedibles.bsky.social•2 days ago

I don’t ever claim to have certainty on these things.

I think the risk of stagflation is very real.

Long term bonds will probably get crushed if that scenario comes to fruition.

vegassteve702.bsky.social•2 days ago

I'm just a sucker fish swimming with the sharks on my market trades. TLT pays nice divy as well

orwellonedibles.bsky.social•2 days ago

Well the “dividend” it pays is just the coupon on the bonds in the ETF.

If trump starts trade wars, lots of prices including energy could go up.

I think it’s smart to spread your bets, but personally I am not going long duration bonds yet. Maybe if rates get over 7%

gabeburgess.bsky.social•2 days ago

You are going to get stagflation

vegassteve702.bsky.social•2 days ago

Think energy prices being low to moderate prevents the inflation portion. The fact it only took 6 weeks to even be talking about this is more disturbing. Trump/Elon doing a bang up job

gabeburgess.bsky.social•2 days ago

Oh he will find a way to help spike prices, like starting a regional war with Iran.

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