🗳️ Some thoughts on the 1st round of the 🇷🇴 #RomanianPresidentialElections as it now seems clear that the dark horse cand. Georgescu (no party, far-right) and Lasconi (USR, center-right, cult. progressive) will fight it out in the 2nd round (although PSD will prob appeal & there might be a recount) 🧵 - ThreadSky

eborbath.bsky.social • 94 days ago

🗳️ Some thoughts on the 1st round of the 🇷🇴 #RomanianPresidentialElections as it now seems clear that the dark horse cand. Georgescu (no party, far-right) and Lasconi (USR, center-right, cult. progressive) will fight it out in the 2nd round (although PSD will prob appeal & there might be a recount) 🧵

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eborbath.bsky.social•94 days ago

1️⃣ The far-right has turned 🇷🇴 politics up-side-down. Georgescu received 23% of the vote, 5p. below Vadim Tudor in 2000 (28%). With Simion, they are at 36.82%.

Both take extreme nationalist, pro-Russian, & econ. protectionist positions. Georgescu is anti-semitic & apologetic about the Holocaust.

eborbath.bsky.social•94 days ago

2️⃣ Their support is prob. driven by protest against the mainstream, embodied by the PSD-PNL 'grand coalition' and their stance on Ukraine. Still, far-right ideology is normalized and mixed with a protest sentiment. One might want to avoid turning it all into positive identification with the far-right

eborbath.bsky.social•94 days ago

3️⃣ Foreshadowing the collapse of the party system: this is the first election where PSD is not even among the largest two parties. Ciolacu (19.15%) did not even replicate Dăncilă's results from 2019 (22.26%). Similarly, Ciucă received 9.79%, by far the worst PNL score ever. Protest voting everywhere.

eborbath.bsky.social•94 days ago

4️⃣ Support for these parties is partly due to ppl. relying on negative PID. In an uncertain context, where it was unclear who will be in the 2nd round, many voted with their 1st preference, the far-right. Negative PID hid the lack of trust, extreme volatility, and the spread of conspiracy theories.

eborbath.bsky.social•94 days ago

5️⃣ Being a dark horse cand. means that nobody knows what Georgescu wants. He has an obscure platform with green, far-right, and extreme religious appeals. He is likely connected to the Russian secret service. Luckily, he has no party, so it will be difficult to capitalize on his success next wknd.

eborbath.bsky.social•94 days ago

6️⃣ Lasconi will likely win, meaning 🇷🇴will have a progressive female pres. who firmly stands with NATO and the EU. Still, AUR & SOS will likely do well next wknd. Lasconi will prob. need to work with a broad alliance that might also include PSD - which, in turn, might further strengthen the far-right.

lotemhalevy.bsky.social•94 days ago

Interesting! This is a more optimistic take than my very tired one, re: what it means for him not to have a party.

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