The 2023 cutoff in US aid was leading to a crisis in the summer of last year. Most published analysis on this is just a lazy assumption that the same thing will happen this time.
That ignores the very large increase in European capacity that has been brought online since then
But the bigger factor is that drones are just becoming more important than even heavy artillery, and Ukraine is producing the vast majority of those by itself.
When you combine the decreasing importance of artillery, increasing EU production capacity and the Czech initiative, Ukraine is likely fine
The Ukrainian defense industry is highly decentralized and not targetable.
There isn’t a critical knockout blow that the Russians can land on the Ukrainian economy, because the GDP that matters is the European one, which is not targetable.
A few years of lower interception rates on Iskander strikes is not going to meaningfully affect the war.
The critical effort is at the front, and it is likely that Ukraine and Europe can prevent the wheels from coming off if they marshal the political will to do so.
Comments
The 2023 cutoff in US aid was leading to a crisis in the summer of last year. Most published analysis on this is just a lazy assumption that the same thing will happen this time.
That ignores the very large increase in European capacity that has been brought online since then
The Czech initiative started delivering large amounts of remanufactured ammo in June/July, and new build supply has been ramping up significantly.
When you combine the decreasing importance of artillery, increasing EU production capacity and the Czech initiative, Ukraine is likely fine
Europe has those systems, and can produce more, but it will require large investments to scale up and sustain what is required.
The Ukrainian defense industry is highly decentralized and not targetable.
There isn’t a critical knockout blow that the Russians can land on the Ukrainian economy, because the GDP that matters is the European one, which is not targetable.
The critical effort is at the front, and it is likely that Ukraine and Europe can prevent the wheels from coming off if they marshal the political will to do so.
https://youtube.com/shorts/w2mTbvms9iY?si=BY82j-ReJC55GwgI
So
New Allied Powers.
Also need a new Leader of the Free World!
Macron?
Trudeau?
Second in power...