Can confirm. As an upper middle household, my husband & I have essentially stopped going out for dinner & drinks on Friday night. Far less mid-week take out. Only occasional lunch out. Will also say that swimming pool construction may also be a canary- husband is a builder & business is bad.
The retail sales data are released unadjusted for inflation, but that report is basically just goods spending + dining out. The more comprehensive consumer spending report, released at the end of the month, is reported both nominally and inflation adjusted
A lot of ppl say the stock market isn't the economy.
I tend to disagree. When stocks are lower and the consensus is for even more pain, ppl don't feel as "rich" as they used to feel and start cutting back a bit. Restaurants are often the canary in the economic coal mine.
I know we cut way back on the "I don't feel like cooking dinner, lets go get fast food." Now that a trip to the drive through hamburger place costs the same as a date night at a sit-down place, there is no point in fast food except convince.
This *probably* suffered from a weather effect given we had pretty punchy US storms in both January and February. But those storms were not as bad as a bunch we've had over the past 15 years or so, so it's not just the weather. Consumers are cutting back discretionary spend.
Perhaps the acid test will be how retail sales overall compare in March. Today's top-down Feb data shows a modest rebound in spending, but far less than expected. This chart implies that the weakness will spill over into this month. Stay tuned.
I wonder how much of this has to do with the quality of the experience, the price of the food, and the outrageous business model that is tipping - which only increases to the frustration of patrons. People seem tired of it all. I know I personally rarely dine out anymore. It's not worth it tbh.
for dumbed down sharing purposes want to make it look less spiky so that latest dip is noticeable. can probably start with 2001 (9/11 comparison is good)
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I tend to disagree. When stocks are lower and the consensus is for even more pain, ppl don't feel as "rich" as they used to feel and start cutting back a bit. Restaurants are often the canary in the economic coal mine.