Hamas is keen to show the public it survived. But in private it is in chaos. My piece this week @economist.com looks at how Hamas was once simultaneously a militant group, a government and a force in Palestinian politics, but may now have to choose just one. 🧵 www.economist.com/middle-east-... - ThreadSky

glcarlstrom.bsky.social • 90 days ago

Hamas is keen to show the public it survived. But in private it is in chaos. My piece this week @economist.com looks at how Hamas was once simultaneously a militant group, a government and a force in Palestinian politics, but may now have to choose just one. 🧵 https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2025/01/29/hamas-talks-a-big-game-but-is-in-chaos

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drjoep.bsky.social•90 days ago

Its demise is welcome. People need actual government not more terror.

glcarlstrom.bsky.social•90 days ago

Hamas has never been in such a fraught situation. The reconstruction of Gaza is an unprecedented challenge that will need tens of billions of dollars in aid, and Israel is unlikely to treat the group with the same forbearance as it did before October 7th. https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2025/01/29/hamas-talks-a-big-game-but-is-in-chaos

glcarlstrom.bsky.social•90 days ago

One path is the Hizbullah model: appoint someone else to run civil affairs in Gaza and focus on rebuilding the military wing. But much of the world would see such a "technocratic" government as a façade. Donors would stay away. And Hamas cannot easily replenish its arsenal.

glcarlstrom.bsky.social•90 days ago

A second option is for Hamas to consolidate control of Gaza, and perhaps try to break its isolation by offering a long-term truce. But Israel would be skeptical of such promises (if hardliners in Hamas's military wing would even agree to them). Again, donors would be hesitant.

glcarlstrom.bsky.social•90 days ago

The third choice is the most pragmatic: reconcile with Fatah and form a unity government. That would unlock more aid. But Hamas and Fatah have spent 20 years making hollow promises about unity. Mistrust runs deep. And a serious unity deal would deprive Hamas of its raison d’être.

glcarlstrom.bsky.social•90 days ago

It is not the only group in the Middle East grappling with such a dilemma. Hizbullah must make a similar choice; HTS in Syria is trying to transition from rebels to rulers. Which way Hamas goes will depend not only on its leaders, but also on the influence of its foreign backers.

rhoda6.bsky.social•90 days ago

As is the Trump administration.

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