“Over the longer term the OBR say economic growth will be boosted by 1.4%. That’s really positive” says Chancellor OBR also say Brexit will reduce the UK’s potential GDP by 4% in the long run by lowering the trade intensity of the economy? Isn’t that important? youtu.be/0Wn4gusyHvk?... - ThreadSky

peterstefanovic.bsky.social • 109 days ago

“Over the longer term the OBR say economic growth will be boosted by 1.4%. That’s really positive” says Chancellor

OBR also say Brexit will reduce the UK’s potential GDP by 4% in the long run by lowering the trade intensity of the economy? Isn’t that important?

https://youtu.be/0Wn4gusyHvk?si=wGEjPfxKC1ECSi_Z

Comments

haletosis.bsky.social•109 days ago

As @northwestbylinetimes.bsky.social says. We need to get away from macroeconomic figures and focus on whether the lives of ordinary working people are actually improving. That’s the true test

andycorney.bsky.social•109 days ago

The economy really isn’t important in comparison to little tinsy insy stuff like the AMOC. Everyone really needs to get a grip right away, there simply won’t be any economies soon & when the AMOC collapses there’ll be no food either as temperatures will drop by 20°C across Europe!

calvp.bsky.social•109 days ago

I'm well in favour of climate change being tackled but being a fearmonger about AMOC and the like isn't the best path forwards. The division of Europe from events like Brexit is only going to lead to worse outcomes for the climate. Cooperation is what we must push for the climates sake

andycorney.bsky.social•109 days ago

I’m only passing on the science. Like it or not, it’s the science & if we fail to deal with it, we will lose everything. A drop in temperature of 20°C is my most important concern, followed closely by the fact that all life on earth is in a real & present danger!

calvp.bsky.social•109 days ago

Andy feel free to message me and we can have a civil chat about the climate. I see you're very passionate about climate change as am I and would love to talk further with you

calvp.bsky.social•109 days ago

Your passing on of the science is too focused on potential outcomes and not enough on solutions. The worst case models that predict AMOC collapse give it ~50% odds of occuring before 2100 and I have seen no good evidence of the 20C drop you claim. So stop spreading fear and start building resistance

andycorney.bsky.social•109 days ago

You’re wrong. Follow my account & you’ll see the science from absolutely irrefutable sources over the coming months. Let’s start with Professor Dr. Johan Rockstrom @jrockstrom Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. https://www.ted.com/talks/johan_rockstrom_the_tipping_points_of_climate_change_and_where_we_stand?utm_campaign=tedspread&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=tedcomshare

benartycomputer.bsky.social•109 days ago

1.4% is a rounding error for the UK economy

hotchkiss13.bsky.social•109 days ago

Growth without redistribution is trickledown which makes the rich richer.

paulsmith5446.bsky.social•109 days ago

effectively we've had 14 years of lies and sticking plaster solutions, they didn't work. these measures are going to take a bit of time but I'll, cautiously, say I'm optimistic

alberthum.bsky.social•109 days ago

I generally vote and support Labour but if they refuse to even discuss rejoining the EU they are going to struggle to be more than a one term government

frenchgreg.bsky.social•109 days ago

What do you reckon labour's end game is?
Do you think it would be a possibility that rejoining could be on their next manifesto in 5 years?

paulpierref.bsky.social•109 days ago

The Labour government can’t continue to use the line about making Brexit work. The only way to deliver the levels of growth required is to rejoin the Single Market and Customs Union. This is now even more urgent given the disaster in the USA.

Sadly, the trust will have evaporated in five years.

ffrind.bsky.social•109 days ago

I’d really like to think so …

theleftygator.bsky.social•109 days ago

This will get revised soon. Keeps happening.
Oh we are projected some growth,
No growth,
Oh, we didn't get any growth. Never mind we will get some growth next quarter. 🔃

I have a bridge to sell you.

ivorbolakov.bsky.social•109 days ago

Minford set out in 2012 what the collapse of the UK's GDP would be after true Brexit. Ending trade deals employs WTO rules to run down UK manufacturing & associated business (as he did with coal & steel). 9 year recovery period expected with mass unemployment the natural consequence.

thehuck.bsky.social•109 days ago

Yes, it is. But the elephant in the room isn't Brexit. That has already happened. It is the EU and the denial by most that the EU won't merely agree to the UK joining the SM, and belief it is already a done deal.

john-burns.bsky.social•109 days ago

Seems like it will be 5.4%, but adjusted for Brexit 1.4%. 😊

mr-p-take.bsky.social•109 days ago

Hi Peter we follow each other on the hell site. 😀👍

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