The world uses ~100 million barrels of oil per day. This is ~170TWh/day of final energy. To replace this final energy with PV, assuming capacity factor of 0.15, you’d need 47 TW of installed PV. With a utility cost of 0.5$/W for PV, the cost of 47 TW today would be $23 trillion which is ~US GDP - ThreadSky

hakonnordhagen.bsky.social • 53 days ago

The world uses ~100 million barrels of oil per day.
This is ~170TWh/day of final energy.
To replace this final energy with PV, assuming capacity factor of 0.15, you’d need 47 TW of installed PV.
With a utility cost of 0.5$/W for PV, the cost of 47 TW today would be $23 trillion which is ~US GDP

Reposted from Jenny Chase

Utility scale benchmark system price in Europe is 50 cents per W fully installed. Rooftop should be around $2.

And you said panel. You can't get electricity straight from a barrel of oil either.

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havantenviro.bsky.social•52 days ago

"To replace this (fossil) final energy with PV,"

Renewables only has to replace about 2/3 to 1/2 of fossil final energy for most countries.

That assumes that people live as they do now and don't change their transport habits and live in poorly insulated buildings etc.

hakonnordhagen.bsky.social•52 days ago

Factor of 1/2 already in there. The amount of RE to build is just mind-blowing - even just for satisfying new demand.

Agree that a change in ways to do things (eg insulate) and ways to move around (eg public transport) will need to push the amount of prim fossil energy to replace further fown.

hakonnordhagen.bsky.social•53 days ago

That said, it will be some time until we’ll install several TW of PV per year. In 2024 <1TW PV was installed globally.

fluffytufts.bsky.social•53 days ago

Only about 70% of oil is used in producing energy. Of that ~5-8% is lost in refining and transport. Most of that refined fuel is used in ICEs which operate at 20-23% efficiency compared to 95% for electric motors
Global solar CF is probably a little higher ~ 17%.
So 5-10TW is closer.

hakonnordhagen.bsky.social•53 days ago

Still, replacing oil as resource input will take a lot of clean energy. But agree, overall oil efficiency perhaps lower than 50%.

havantenviro.bsky.social•52 days ago

One of hundreds of possible electrification scenarios for the UK.
This is incomplete because I didn't bother with flying and some other hard to change sectors.
A bigger problem is growth IMO, eg data centres.

hakonnordhagen.bsky.social•52 days ago

Nice! Those are primary energy numbers for fossil sources? Fossil prim -> electrified/~final is about 50% efficiency (?)

To replace fossil air with e-fuels will make an ugly dent in the efficiency number.

No «fossil marine» ?

havantenviro.bsky.social•52 days ago

The efficiency is accounted for in heating, road and rail transport depending on technology and also the fact that electric technologies have some losses too.
Some are estimates, eg industrial electrification which is likely to see lower gains compared to heating and ground transport.

fluffytufts.bsky.social•53 days ago

Yes. It’s a huge lift for the energy industry and I don’t think many utilities anticipate a an entirely free free grid any time soon. But non-fossil deployment continues rapid growth.

hakonnordhagen.bsky.social•53 days ago

But how are we, in the current economic system, going to make the fossil industry leave something in the ground that they can extract for 5-30$ and sell for 80-100$ and serve as instant energy injected directly into the veins of a beast demanding to run faster and faster?

fluffytufts.bsky.social•53 days ago

We are destroying demand for the product. The deployment of alternative energy has already substantially slowed demand growth and is expected to flatten and then reduce demand.

hakonnordhagen.bsky.social•53 days ago

I agree, but it’s still waay to slow. Global demand is increasing for all (oil,coal and gas), and fossil industries are set to continue that. We are still struggling to supply new demand in power with clean power. And new demand will accellerate. And capital adores concentrated power (inn all ways)

fluffytufts.bsky.social•53 days ago

*fossil free

simonfrancis.bsky.social•53 days ago

The continuous rate of world energy consumption is a bit less than 20TW

hakonnordhagen.bsky.social•53 days ago

Sure, but the sun only shines on parts of the world at a given time;)

blueboomersrsolar.bsky.social•53 days ago

Have you calculated the cost of an unlivable earth where everything is dead or dying. Solar is not the only sustainable solution. Solar, wind, geothermal and other transitional renewable energy technology solutions we have today are just a bridge to the real solutions found in fusion and hydrogen

hakonnordhagen.bsky.social•53 days ago

Problem is, capital (and billionaires) thrive on crises. I’m aware that a mix of clean resources is needed, but oil is only 1/3 of what fossil that needs replacing. Hydrogen is just energy storage, and fusion is always too much into the future. Time is short, and our current system is not up to it.

istvan101.bsky.social•53 days ago

Limited thinkingb

blueboomersrsolar.bsky.social•53 days ago

Not sure we can believe them but China says their fusion experiment sustained a positive net reaction for 1016 seconds. Not ready for commercialization yet but were getting closer. I have watched this for 60+ years now and it's always 50 years away. Renewables now. Fusion some day.

blueboomersrsolar.bsky.social•53 days ago

I mention hydrogen because it is looking better than ever. it is the most abundant recourse in the universe.
https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/what-we-do/delivering-industrial-solutions/hydrogen?camp=PaidSearch_DR_1ECX_BING_TRAF_OT_Non-Brand_Broad_Hydrogen&gclid=354cfeea0a29110ea799997f3d6ad750&gclsrc=3p.ds&msclkid=354cfeea0a29110ea799997f3d6ad750&utm_source=bing&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=1ECX_BING_TRAF_OT_Non-Brand_Broad_Hydrogen&utm_term=hydrogen%20as%20a%20fuel&utm_content=OT_Non-Brand_Hydrogen#HydrogenfacilityatBaytown

hakonnordhagen.bsky.social•53 days ago

…if it wasn’t for its tricky affinity to readily combine with O, and poor energy per volume properties. Etc.

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