Turnout increased in Germany from 75.5 to 82%. Interestingly, this increase had a levelling effect. The lower the turnout was in 2021, the more it rose in 2025 (correlation -.76), and that reduced the standard deviation in turnout from 4 to 2.7%. - ThreadSky

heinzbrandenburg.bsky.social • 3 days ago

Turnout increased in Germany from 75.5 to 82%. Interestingly, this increase had a levelling effect. The lower the turnout was in 2021, the more it rose in 2025 (correlation -.76), and that reduced the standard deviation in turnout from 4 to 2.7%.

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heinzbrandenburg.bsky.social•3 days ago

At that range, we are still a bit away from a ceiling effect, I reckon, so it was more substantially low turnout areas catching up with higher turnout areas.

The most spectacular electoral district in that regard was Berlin-Pankow where turnout increased by 26 percentage points from 57.5 to 83.6%.

heinzbrandenburg.bsky.social•3 days ago

Turnout increases were slightly higher across the East (> 7 percentage points) than the West (around 5.5 percentage points), with Berlin being the Bundesland with the largest increase of over 11 percentage points.

heinzbrandenburg.bsky.social•3 days ago

And in that sense, this was a high turnout election that helped rather than hindered the progress of populists.

juliusk.bsky.social•3 days ago

This is because the Federal Returning Officer uses the voter turnout of the Berlin constituencies in the repeat election (where turnout was very low).

heinzbrandenburg.bsky.social•3 days ago

Oh, that explains it of course. I shall change that, and use the 2021 figures instead.

Thanks for pointing that out.

heinzbrandenburg.bsky.social•3 days ago

Using the 2021 figures for Berlin, the correlation between turnout 2021 and turnout change 2021-2025 reduces slightly to .73.

juliusk.bsky.social•3 days ago

Yes haha, I didn't mean to question the correlation. But what I'm wondering is whether low voter turnout in 2021 is just capturing deprived areas where the AfD is now mobilizing non-voters?

heinzbrandenburg.bsky.social•3 days ago

Sure, at least partly. Which you showed earlier with your model of AfD vote that included turnout change.

But interesting that it is not just an East-West thing, not even primarily, because it also strongly works in the West, where the north has seen much higher turnout increases than the south.

mq86mq.bsky.social•3 days ago

Der Haupteffekt ist, wo zuvor andere Wahlen waren und deshalb die Wahlbeteiligung 2021 sehr niedrig. Erstaunlicherweise inklusiv Wahlen am selben Tag, wo ich eigentlich mal untersuchen wollte, ob das immer so ist.

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