A good rule of thumb is if you’re talking about rising recession risk in February your “0% recession” call in December was bad: - ThreadSky

conorsen.bsky.social • 1 day ago

A good rule of thumb is if you’re talking about rising recession risk in February your “0% recession” call in December was bad:

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agronox.bsky.social•1 day ago

Has anyone said "Torsten Slop"

nicktimiraos.bsky.social•21 hours ago

0% or 100% calls are great at getting attention when they're published but, like the Oct 2022 "100% chance of recession in a year," they often tend to get more attention after the fact for wrong reasons.

estebanenchilada.bsky.social•21 hours ago

I noted it at the time, but I don’t think Slok even got much attention for it. It really is an asymmetric payoff to claim anything about the economy is 0 or 100%. Irrational choice on his part.

jwb12.bsky.social•21 hours ago

There is a lot of incentive to make the bold call for attention on the sellside (former member) and investor memory is short if you are wrong, and you can get great press in the low probability event you are right.

estebanenchilada.bsky.social•21 hours ago

Dunno about memories being short. He could end up being mocked about this for a good long while.

3fecta.bsky.social•1 day ago

If you forecast that obviously Trump won't break things because the economy is humming along and he is too smart to do anything but take credit for it, well...

dburke20.bsky.social•1 day ago

In fairness if you didn’t predict Trump firing 100,000’s of thousands of people, pulling billions out of the economy and imposing massive tarrifs at random then it could be a mistake.

veratchao.bsky.social•23 hours ago

My belief that a recession was coming increased when I saw this "0% chance of recession" article back in December. I haven't heard this kind of magical thinking since 2005-2006.

notdred.bsky.social•1 day ago

Insanely dumb move for a predictor. You have to at least assume a definitive but low probability so if you’re wrong you can still say you warned people there was a chance, a la Nate Silver:Trump 2016

options-value.bsky.social•1 day ago

Is there someone who has a better long run track record on election forecasting that you can share either us?

options-value.bsky.social•1 day ago

Just this morning @pkrugman.bsky.social reminded readers that economic forecasting is very poor. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2018/03/05/How-Well-Do-Economists-Forecast-Recessions-45672?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

tenac1ous.bsky.social•1 day ago

Anyone who says probability of an economic event is either 0% or 100%, is not a serious economist.

stevebergin.bsky.social•1 day ago

@aaronsojourner.org As bad as MSM often was in laying out dangers of Trump return, the financial experts were worse. They should have been clear eyed about the potential Black Swans Trump would unleash and only blathered about tax rates & how elections don't matter much to markets.

veratchao.bsky.social•23 hours ago

There were so many signs that Trump 2.0 wasn't going to be a rerun of the first 3 years of Trump 1.0. It's amazing how many people couldn't (or didn't want to)see it.

stevebergin.bsky.social•22 hours ago

Didn't want to publicly say anything... and still don't. In part out of fear of retribution and part because Biden/Harris/Dems don't inspire anyone (despite Biden delivering an incredible soft landing)

brianromanchuk.bsky.social•1 day ago

The problem a (for example) 20% chance of a recession call is that it’s fairly weaselly and meaningless outside of doing a probability-weighted scenario analysis. Might as well say 0% and throw in some disclaimer about unquantifiable unknowns.

esouthard.bsky.social•1 day ago

Shoulda gone with 33/33/33 chances, aka “the Summers”

jamesmarkey7.bsky.social•1 day ago

binomine.bsky.social•1 day ago

I think a lot of people bought the idea that Trump term 2 would be like Trump term 1, forgetting that most of the adults have left the Republican party and replaced with stooges, and the Democrats are pacified by the MAGA enablers.

various-threnodies.bsky.social•1 day ago

If only there was some way for analysts to have foreseen that the 2nd Trump administration was likely to be extremely erratic and poorly run...

guybaddis.bsky.social•1 day ago

The complacency over Trump shocked me.

We heard constantly that he wasn't going to be surrounded by "guardrail" Republicans this time. And he was fixated on tariffs. Even if you were convinced it was all a show, you couldn't be 100% certain.

troelsadrian.bsky.social•22 hours ago

#NotAllDanes

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