This is an interesting article link. Truly. But it’s based on hypothesis not on actuals. Do you have something based on actuals? In particular, actuals showing that current residents get more affordable housing or at least break even. - ThreadSky

aruss-updates.bsky.social • 56 days ago

This is an interesting article link. Truly. But it’s based on hypothesis not on actuals.

Do you have something based on actuals? In particular, actuals showing that current residents get more affordable housing or at least break even.

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gweran.bsky.social•56 days ago

In this paper the model is based on actual housing data, so I’m not entirely sure what you mean. If you are looking for a case study, first you’d need to find a city to increase supply more than the increase in demand.

aruss-updates.bsky.social•56 days ago

I read the extract and it was a hypothesis from 2019. I ask again, does the article go into actuals (which research starting in 2019 could do)?

Not projections and theory. Actual outcomes. I truly would like to see data on that.

If I’ve misconstrued the article, please let me know.

gweran.bsky.social•56 days ago

Perhaps you’d rather start with this paper, which is a companion piece of sorts: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3507532

The paper uses real housing data to show how prices are affected. The other paper then uses real data to model the impact in-migration has on affordable housing in general.

aruss-updates.bsky.social•55 days ago

Just started reading but this study has a major concern the authors acknowledge—the study omits buildings constructed at the same time in dense neighborhoods.

It cuts the sample size in half & excludes the reality of development in NYC & DC—multiple new large buildings within the same block.

gweran.bsky.social•55 days ago

Yes, they limited their scope in order to control for specific variables. But please feel free to publish your own research paper addressing these concerns and if it shows new construction actually increases prices, I’ll be happy to read it and adjust my opinion accordingly.

aruss-updates.bsky.social•55 days ago

I don’t have my own research on this subject. It’s a small field & the researchers are contributing to it. That’s a good thing!

But it doesn’t mean their research proves it’s a slam dunk. It doesn’t.

And I wish defenders of housing construction were as honest as the researchers are about that. 1/2

gweran.bsky.social•56 days ago

But there are several other papers looking at and confirming the same results:

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3867764

https://www.lewis.ucla.edu/research/market-rate-development-impacts/

https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.20170388

aruss-updates.bsky.social•56 days ago

Thanks for putting this together. I’ll take a look.

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