What you get from YIMBYs - 'well it needs for more time, you need to do more of it, you need to do this platonic ideal of YIMBY that will never be politically feasible...' What I would like is for YIMBYs to provide some conditions that if true would force them to admit their policies do not work. - ThreadSky

ymroddi.bsky.social • 55 days ago

What you get from YIMBYs - 'well it needs for more time, you need to do more of it, you need to do this platonic ideal of YIMBY that will never be politically feasible...'

What I would like is for YIMBYs to provide some conditions that if true would force them to admit their policies do not work.

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jeremyke.bsky.social•55 days ago

Easy. The goal is to build more housing than the market demands so prices fall. If prices go up AND inventory sits vacant rather than reduce prices to rent/sell, then you will prove the plan doesn't work.

jeremyke.bsky.social•55 days ago

The hard part is that there is a lot of pent up demand for expensive areas at current prices, so *some* more housing won't change the prices much. Growth also induces demand, so even more housing is required to meet that.

jeremyke.bsky.social•55 days ago

But if you build enough, you have to start attracting people who would prefer to live somewhere else at current prices, and so you have to lower prices to do so. At that stage, it's simple supply/demand .

ymroddi.bsky.social•55 days ago

So your plan is for developers to make catastrophic misjudgments of their markets, overbuild, lose money and go out of business (and cause construction workers to lose their jobs and leave the industry).

jeremyke.bsky.social•55 days ago

No. A big part of "YIMBY policies" is to reduce the cost and increase the availability of opportunities so that developers can 1.) do *more* projects and thus need less profit per project to stay solvent overall and 2.) have reduced cost per project so that profit can be maintained at lower prices.

jeremyke.bsky.social•55 days ago

You're right that a big reason for prices being where they are is the prices developers can pencil projects that make sense. Short of direct gov funding, you gotta reduce their costs to make developers do more development.

ymroddi.bsky.social•55 days ago

And the problem is that building with more density only increases land and construction costs. Developers are not going to build more than demand. They aren't going to lose money so people can live somewhere cool. You only get production at volume when prices are *rising*.

jeremyke.bsky.social•55 days ago

You only get production at volume when developers get attractive profit, yes. Falling costs per unit is an alternative way to achieve that though. You're right land gets more expensive, but per unit costs don't scale linearly. It's cheaper per unit to build 100 unit apt than 100 separate homes.

jajajaboo.bsky.social•55 days ago

Actually all we see is data from actual implementation showing they work (Minneapolis and Austin) and vague statements like this about not working (or half hearted / poorly implemented visions not working). Build more of everything everywhere

ymroddi.bsky.social•55 days ago

I could go on and on, increasing rents/production collapse in Portland, failure of SB9 in CA, LA having transit oriented communities policy and ADUs since 2018, San Diego. Cities have done YIMBY policies and they haven't delivered.

ymroddi.bsky.social•55 days ago

In summary, YIMBY proposition is you change land use. This increases sustainably and significantly increases production. The increase then delivers sustainable and significant increases in affordability. This just isn't happening.

ymroddi.bsky.social•55 days ago

At best, YIMBY policies possibly could 'bend the curve.' In cities with severe affordability issues (all the cities YIMBY focus on), you then have to wait until incomes slowly catch up to the bent curve. Absent demand shocks, this is a multi-decade proposition.

ymroddi.bsky.social•55 days ago

Jersey City

ymroddi.bsky.social•55 days ago

More Minneapolis

ymroddi.bsky.social•55 days ago

The prices you see in Austin now have nothing to do with YIMBY policies. All the building happened before YIMBY policies. After YIMBY policies, building has collapsed.

ymroddi.bsky.social•55 days ago

Experts think Austin will resume the 2019 trend and Austin will end up with housing shortages in a few years.
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/austin-texas-rental-market-apartments-post-pandemic-growth/

ymroddi.bsky.social•55 days ago

'New apartment construction hasn’t lowered rents in many areas'

https://www.housingwire.com/articles/new-construction-asking-rent-redfin-report/

winedad.bsky.social•55 days ago

Couldn't the same argument be lobbed at the anti-YIMBY left re: tenant advocacy?

My two cents: YIMBY's and left NIMBY's should make peace and team up to get more done on both fronts.

thisisbenphelps.bsky.social•55 days ago

You can find examples of YIMBY policies not resulting in more homes being built (as in California and Los Angeles)

You cannot find examples of building more homes not putting downward pressure on rents.

ymroddi.bsky.social•55 days ago

https://www.startribune.com/a-rental-reckoning-is-coming-to-twin-cities-housing/601180524

ohtheurbanity.bsky.social•55 days ago

Jersey City has a population of 300,000 in a metro area of 20 million. I don't think it's possible for that small of a jurisdiction to solve a housing crisis for such a large region.

thisisbenphelps.bsky.social•55 days ago

The quote is not even a counter example of what I said

ymroddi.bsky.social•55 days ago

cspeters42.bsky.social•55 days ago

Don't bother arguing with this bad faith actor.

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