‼️ Russia: “Pro-Kremlin Economists Predict Russia Will Face a “Surge of Bankruptcies” Due to High Key Rate” But…”we should not expect a “wave” of bankruptcies before the second quarter of 2025” This is from experts from the analytical center CMAKS www.moscowtimes.ru/2024/12/12/p... - ThreadSky

prune602.bsky.social • 174 days ago

‼️ Russia: “Pro-Kremlin Economists Predict Russia Will Face a “Surge of Bankruptcies” Due to High Key Rate”

But…”we should not expect a “wave” of bankruptcies before the second quarter of 2025”

This is from experts from the analytical center CMAKS

https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2024/12/12/prokremlevskie-ekonomisti-predrekli-rossii-val-bankrotstv-iz-za-visokoi-klyuchevoi-stavki-a150391

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prune602.bsky.social•174 days ago

“The typical delay between the deterioration of conditions and the growth of the number of bankruptcies is 6-12 months, remind CMASF experts, so we should not expect a “wave” of bankruptcies before the second quarter of 2025….”

prune602.bsky.social•174 days ago

“…In addition, in 2023, when companies’ profits set a record, businesses accumulated a margin of safety. “

👆 This is something I question. The Ministry of Finance went and plundered a great deal of profitability from companies in 2023, so I’m not sure how much “margin of safety” exists.

prune602.bsky.social•174 days ago

I know that certain sectors are probably worse off than others, so maybe some of them do have a little bit of cushion, BUT I would always remind people that there is a LOT of volatility in Russia.

Things could be even worse than we think they are.

bluemirabelle.bsky.social•174 days ago

Plus I guess this economist based his analysis on the current rate, but as it will be raise again I guess we may see this mass failure sooner that second quarter of 2025.
Fingers cross 🤞

steenbr.bsky.social•174 days ago

Or even better, they could fire the current head of the central bank.

mageemc.bsky.social•174 days ago

Since that would be a complete disaster for them, I expect that eventually they will try to do that. The real question is whether Putin will be politically desperate enough to let them.

cali-lib.bsky.social•174 days ago

They assure everyone that things are fine, while stiffing construction workers building a highway to Russia's 4th largest city.

Yeah, plenty of money, nothing to worry about...

wanderingpictures.bsky.social•174 days ago

“How did you go bankrupt?
Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.”
― Ernest Hemingway

cpeters47.bsky.social•174 days ago

Well, You may read it as this:
"No, they don't expect this wave of bankruptcies in the first quarter. It is expected to happen in the second."

That is at least, what comes first in my mind...

jpeter1son.bsky.social•174 days ago

I too thought of the excess profits tax

angsty-hill.bsky.social•174 days ago

They seem to find ways to keep hanging on. And india just signed a 10 year old deal 😡

prune602.bsky.social•174 days ago

lol, no, they’re just good at convincing the world that everything is fine. Everything has been crumbling consistently in the background, it just takes a while to come down.

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