Keeping in mind all the handwaving I made about it being a working estimate & that it doesn’t include estimates related to new placements and other things listed in this thread… We’re moving closer to 4.45 Trillion Also, you can see that there are other securities but they’re small in comparison. - ThreadSky

prune602.bsky.social • 5 days ago

Keeping in mind all the handwaving I made about it being a working estimate & that it doesn’t include estimates related to new placements and other things listed in this thread…

We’re moving closer to 4.45 Trillion

Also, you can see that there are other securities but they’re small in comparison.

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cali-lib.bsky.social•5 days ago

So, if they are going to finance 4.45 Trillion Rubles via selling new constant coupon bonds in 2025, and they don't dramatically increase the constant coupon rate (so the ratio of revenue to placement remains ~.6)...

... they need to sell 7.42 Trillion Rubles worth of bonds (placement value).

prune602.bsky.social•5 days ago

Any of these numbers for Russia…they’re going to have little…unexpected minor changes.

I think I’m going to refer to them as “Crazy Ivans”

https://youtu.be/DRUpAipGu5w?si=qz2c-3wHze9TRnpv

prune602.bsky.social•5 days ago

It basically means that they’re reported numbers in one area don’t necessarily cover exactly what you think they should.

Usually this is just fractional amounts that does a weird maneuver over to somewhere else.

prune602.bsky.social•5 days ago

I try not to bog people down with it too much, because sometimes I know it’s hard for people to follow what I’m talking about in the first place.

But…just know that Russian numbers do that

🇷🇺: It’s my Special Accounting Operation!

prune602.bsky.social•5 days ago

Anyway…for the most part the (unless there’s a small crazy Ivan maneuver) the stuff in green in bottom graph is locked it. They’ll just added to those light green costs as they make more placements.

The dark pink on that graph is also locked in.

prune602.bsky.social•5 days ago

The light pink is the variable rate coupon bonds. Those are the we can see possible variations in. Right now, I’ve got them set to around the RUONIA results we’re seeing now based on 21% key rate.

prune602.bsky.social•5 days ago

An increase in the key rate will drive these costs higher, new bond placements are going to also drive these costs higher.

Any new bonds placed in the first half of the year are going to have at least one bond payment in 2025. Those will drive these numbers even higher. 😊

thelilek.bsky.social•4 days ago

if you got that correct then its pretty brutal

prune602.bsky.social•4 days ago

It will increase as they place more bonds. (Unless the CAN’T place new bonds…and that outcome will probably be even worse)

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