I did some modeling based on the preliminary results from Monday and some SUPER conservative takes on a 20% key rate.
As of right now this key rate looks like it will result in only a 39 billion ruble (or less) drop in my 2025 total coupon obligation forecasts.
As of right now this key rate looks like it will result in only a 39 billion ruble (or less) drop in my 2025 total coupon obligation forecasts.
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(And that the actual RUONIA rates will run higher than my forecast based on a 20% key rate)
So, new forecast is something like 4.57 trillion rubles
So, it could be a bit faster.
June and July are expensive months. So, all these people who yell Russia is strong can still put their money in and buy Russian bonds. There's lots. What could possibly go wrong? 😁
Also, issues are appearing far before reaching 0.
If they can make a credible budget for 2026 with this, it will already be incredible.
It will depend a lot on the attitude of China.
As such, I set a bunch of calculations that forecast their expenses related to those bonds.
They’re currently struggling to cover just their bond related expenses, let alone pay for anything else with these things.
Results: Long threads (with typos)