Nate Silver: "I don’t think you should put any value whatsoever on anyone’s gut —including mine. You should resign yourself to the fact that a 50-50 forecast really does mean 50-50"
🇺🇸
(Yet it doesn't mean that the result in electoral college will necessarily be close)
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/23/opinion/election-polls-results-trump-harris.html?searchResultPosition=1