FWIW I don't think it's already priced in

I do think conventional wisdom is a tad too apocalyptic.

But a world in which this doesn't hit profit margins is probably not a very likable outcome for consumers
Reposted from Skanda Amarnath
The initial reaction from the market is pretty muted all things considered. ~.5% on S&P, few bps on 10yr.

What's the best reconciliation:

1) It's already priced in
2) It's still not priced in
3) It's affecting the economy in ways that conventional wisdom doesn't anticipate

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