Given that Russia isn't going to announce a withdrawal from Syria — it'll just leave, with as much ambiguity and chaos as it can in its wake — this is a pretty good indication its talks with the new People's Syria to retain its bases are not going well. www.wsj.com/world/russia... - ThreadSky

bonenberger.bsky.social • 82 days ago

Given that Russia isn't going to announce a withdrawal from Syria — it'll just leave, with as much ambiguity and chaos as it can in its wake — this is a pretty good indication its talks with the new People's Syria to retain its bases are not going well. https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/russia-begins-packing-up-military-equipment-in-syria-satellite-images-show-6cf23db9?mod=hp_lead_pos6

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bonenberger.bsky.social•82 days ago

One of two possibilities or a mix of the two for how negotiations went: (1) Syrian rebel leaders invited the Russians in for parlay just to tell them to their faces how much they hated and loathed them (2) Syrian rebels demanded money Russia no longer has to give as restitution and for further rent

bonenberger.bsky.social•82 days ago

Either way I think it's pretty likely that Russia's packing up and leaving Syria in the next week or two. I'm sure this will be a bitter blow to Trump and many foreign policy think tank people who want Russia to succeed and personally feel affronted every time Russian prestige is damaged

bonenberger.bsky.social•82 days ago

Who might take those bases over, if not the Syrians? My hope would be some European country or alliance of countries; at least in the short term. Not to "project influence" so much as help Syria's new government come in from its decade-long rebellion with a soft landing. To build bridges

ruthmichaelson.com•82 days ago

It wouldn’t be in Russia’s interest to completely vacate those bases, they will cling on because they use them to deploy mercenaries and all kinds of equipment across Africa +MENA, plus they are cut off from other options due to Montreux.

bonenberger.bsky.social•82 days ago

You're absolutely right, losing those bases will be a huge setback for Russia. You've covered that region for a long time — are Syrian leaders interested in hosting Russia if Russia will not pay restitution for its role in maintaining Assad's regime, or even at a minimum just apologizing?

ruthmichaelson.com•81 days ago

I mean, restitution seems like a faraway idea - that would require Moscow to say they made a tactical mistake by bombing Aleppo, for example (and not how the Russian press has covered it, which is that they backed a failing army that didn't want to fight, which is in some ways also true).

dsmdexter.bsky.social•82 days ago

They are just moving to Libya.

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